args

CON

• CON

  This could be caused by that. ......

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  Developed Countries have a moral obligation to mitigate the effects of climate change

  "The topic doesn't limit developing countries, which i believe you are refering to. They can mitigate, but developed countries have the obligation as they created this mess. " Developed nations have obligation to clean up, but developing countries don't? This does not really make sense to me. "Are you going to let the climate go on how it is going and have a 1.9 trillion dollar cost of global warming in the next century." How can we take action if we do not even know if global warming exists? There is evidence both for and against this. "the renewable industries created 35 M jobs in 2011- UN" In my last argument, I said that as oil prices rise, people can't afford it and instead start buying alternate fuels. This could be caused by that. The government did not need to do anything. "If we cut funding into oil, then terrorists will lose money and stop killing innocent lives. I value lives greatly over money, Judge" The terrorists are only indirectly caused by oil. Plus, not all oil cause terrorism. Here are some examples of places that have a lot of oil and little terrorists: U.S (3rd) Canada (6th) U.K. (19th) [1] "Also, developed countries emmitted a lot of C02 into the atmosphere during their industrial revolution. Now the developing countries are going through their's and since the developed countries have emmitted so much, they have the moral obligation." Again, so developing nations don't need to? "They said to my terrorism subpoint that oil comapnies will lose their induestries and that green energy is not linked." You misunderstood my point: Oil gets more expensive as it gets scarcer, so people will switch to green energy without even the government telling them to do so. My point is the government is not required to tell people to do so as they will do it, NOT that big oil corporations will go bankrupt. Green energy sure does help, but that is another separate topic. [1]http://en.wikipedia.org...

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Developed-Countries-have-a-moral-obligation-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change/2/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.42

    climate: 12.15

    conclusion: 6.64 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 4.27 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.89)

    sourceText: 1.25 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.10)

    change: 6.13

    conclusion: 5.74 (boost 1.50, idf 5.24, tfNorm 0.73)

    sourceText: 0.39 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 2.08)
• CON

  My first refutation of the resolution is simple. ... They...

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  Governments should require that funded climate data be posted

  Pro has introduced a very interesting and, on the surface, at least, a proposal that promises a new wave of openess in the Climate-Change controversy. Unfortunately, I have taken up the thankless task of refuting the proposal. As written, there are actually three different outcomes that would adequately refute the proposal; first, to successfully argue that governments NEED not impose a condition..., second that governments SHOULD not impose a condition..., and third that governments should impose a condition AGAINST... I contend that my arguments will satisfy at least two of the three options. I am not going to defend either side of the climate-change controversy. I will leave that for another debate. What I will show is the fallicy in assuming that a full public disclosure of of the raw data, the processes, the software, and the findings will somehow further the further the progress toward determining the truth of the facts. Furthermore, I will show how unlimited public access to all, and especially preliminary data will only serve to further fire the flames of rhetoric that serve to obscure what may well be the most crucial issue of our time. I am certain, no matter on which side of the climate-change question your allegience currently lies, by the end of Round 3, you will be convinced to vote CON on the resolution as proposed. My first refutation of the resolution is simple. There is no reason to believe that public disemination of the raw data, the processes used to qualify and quantify that data, the software used to accomplish those processes nor the daily findings that result from those processes would change the Public's perception of the issue. In fact, the polititions who must vote to fund this research (at least in the US) are very attuned to the pulse of the voters and their support or opposition to spending taxpayer money for it and, for the most part, those taxpayers do not rely on data or facts, they rely on someone to tell them how they feel about the question. Both the "Liberal" and the "Conservative" sides of the issue have their pundits to tell them whether to support the research or not, whether to believe what the other side tells them or not and no amount of facts are going to make a perceptable differencein the way a person feels. This is not an argument of opinion, it is an argument based upon historical precedents: In November of 1963, an assasin shot and killed the President of the United States in Dallas, TX. The Warren Commission reviewed the evidence of the investigation into that shooting and the background of the assasin, Lee Harvey Oswald and issued its findings almost a year later, in September of 1964. [http://www.archives.gov...] The report spelled out the facts of the case and drew the conclusion that Oswald had acted alone. But conspiracy theorists had made up their minds that there were more than one shooter, that Oswald was acting under orders of the USSR or Castro's Cuba or The CIA or the FBI or whatever else they could dream up. Finally, after a long investigation by the Assinations Records and Review Board, they published their findings in September of 1998, confirming what the Warren commission has stated 34 years earlier. [http://www.archives.gov...] Did that put an end to the conspiracy theory? In 1947, the US Air Force launched Project Sign, later to become known as Project Blue Book which listed the results of investigations of thousands of reports of UFO's from the Roswell, New Mexico incident through January 1969. In January of 1970, those files were made available to the public, on the assumption that the facts would end the arguments over the validity of UFO sightings and Alien Invasion fears. [http://www.bluebookarchive.org...] Didn't work. In 2009, the first draft of the National Health Care Reform Bill was published both in the Congressional Quarterly and on the Internet. Well, I guess that stopped all of the misconceptions about the bill, including the "government coming between you and your doctor" and the "Obama Death Panels." Also in 2009, the CDC issued the warning against H1N1 or "Swine" flu, urging people to take precautions. Later, they came out with a vaccine that their test data proved safe. Now, in December, after over 10,000 people have died from H1N1 inthe US, people are still convinced the vaccine is "bad" and refuse to get vaccinated or even have their children vaccinated. [http://news.cnet.com...] If governments require raw data (which almost always contains "flaws"), processed data (just another term for changing data or simply eliminating some of it), the software, (source code for analysis?) and findings within 30 days, both sides, pro and con, will have a field day pulling one line quotes, massaging figures, adding adjectives and just plain lying, and using the data they know nobody is really going to research to prove them wrong. They (both sides) will use this data to inflame the public and people, being people, are usually more afraid of change than keeping the status quo, so nobody wins and, many times there is a good chance the public is the ones that are going to get hurt.

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Governments-should-require-that-funded-climate-data-be-posted/1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.30

    climate: 14.31

    conclusion: 8.03 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.88)

    premises: 5.02 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 1.05)

    sourceText: 1.26 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.11)

    change: 3.76

    premises: 3.42 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 1.33)

    sourceText: 0.35 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.87)
• CON

  Inhomogeneities affecting station records can most...

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  Man-Made Global Warming Isn't Real

  I need to urge Pro to read the sources he/she is citing a bit more carefully before just throwing them into a debate. Beyond the fact that I thoroughly disproved his/her contention that their facts are all from Tesla whose stance is one suggesting "Man-Made Global Warming Isn't Real", they have actually cited sources that say the exact opposite of what they are trying to prove. The other sources, as I describe below, are simply not valid scientific sources in any sense of the term. Especially given that BoP is on Pro, he/she should have to combat my claims with counterclaims from equally, if not superior sources. Rather, they have utilized highly-contested articles from non-scientific sources, some of which are explicitly labeled "opinions" rather than fact. For example, Pro's first source about "WWII/Greenhouse Gasses" is actually titled: Climate myths: The cooling after 1940 shows CO2 does not cause warming. Emphasis on myths. The article is all about the fact that this argument is in no way true. It specifically states that, "The sudden drop in temperatures in 1945 now appears to be an artifact of a switch from using mainly US ships to collect sea surface temperature data to using mainly UK ships. The two fleets used a different method. The temperature record is currently being updated to reflect this bias." This shows that, not only does Pro's claim have no standing because the statistic is actually a result of changing methodology, but they are actually attempting to cite new sources (since their original ones were copied and pasted from a Tesla forum) which either contradict previous arguments or are based on non-scientific, opinion-based, vastly-refuted claims. The source they cite for the "0.7 - 0.9"C increase in the average global temperature" is a 13-page long, fairly technical document which I actually took the time to read. The only time the numbers 0.7 and 0.9 even occur is in a section titled, "2. The importance of data quality and consistency when studying extremes." This section states, among other things, "Nicholls (1996) observed that a major problem undermining our ability to determine whether extreme weather and climate events were changing was that it is more difficult to maintain the long-term homogeneity of observations required to observe changes in extremes, compared to monitoring changes in means of variables. Inhomogeneities affecting station records can most commonly be introduced through site moves, changes in instrumentation, changes in local site conditions (through urbanization for example), or changes in observing practices." This section is about bringing into question the integrity of the very data Pro is attempting to cite. Furthermore, this section actually discusses the "Monthly minimum value of daily min temperature" and in no way speaks to the "average global temperature" as suggested by Pro. Regarding Pro's discussion of the myth of receding glaciers, I should point out first that the article is from 6 years ago, second that it is from the Daily Mail as opposed to the actual scientific sources I provided, and third, only covers the change over one year. Even though the artic sea ice may have increased over this one year, it was still at far lower than average levels. Also, the IPCC did not hold the crisis meeting that was alleged. That is a complete fabrication. The IPCC actually directly came out to state how terrible of a source of information this specific article was: "The UN’s climate science body has rejected claims in the Mail on Sunday newspaper that it plans to hold a crisis meeting to discuss the impending release of its latest major report. In an article labelled ‘Global cooling‘ journalist David Rose said that the growth in Arctic ice was proof of a worldwide global warming scam, and that the predictions of the current climate models were “gravely flawed”. Rose said that leaked reports showed that governments were demanding 1,500 changes to the Summary for Policy makers, as it failed to adequately explain the recent “pause” in global warming. As a result, he said, the IPCC was calling a crisis meeting to deal with the “revelations”. “Contrary to the articles the IPCC is not holding any crisis meeting,” it said in a statement. “The IPCC will convene a plenary session to finalize the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, in line with its normal procedures, in Stockholm on 23-26 September 2013. “The session has been scheduled for several years and this timetable has been repeatedly publicized by the IPCC.” Pro's article from TheHill.com stating that there is "no real scientific proof" regarding the rise in greenhouse gases is actually an OpEd piece contributed by a seismologist/volcanolgist. In no way is this an actual corroborated scientific source, nor was it even contributed by the type of expert who could refute the plethora of evidence I've provided. Pro's citation of an article about the sun being responsible for a great share of climate change starts with the sentence "In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions." It is an article debunking the exact myth that Pro is trying to perpetuate with their argument. Again, I'm not sure Pro actually read this. Finally, regarding the petition by "scientists", I urge voters to take a closer look. First of all, this petition is over 10 years old. A more "2013 peer-reviewed study evaluated 10,306 scientists to confirm that over 97 percent climate scientists agree, and over 97 percent of scientific articles find that global warming is real and largely caused by humans." Second of all, this petition required no actual proof that the signatories had the credentials they claimed. Third, and perhaps most importantly, many of the signatories in no way were qualified to give factual, unbiased opinions on the matter. Surely those who are best suited to make judgments here are climatologists, meteorologists, agencies like NASA, etc. (all of which are the type I provided). Here are just a few examples of the qualifications of those signatories on Pro's outdated petition, for which I have already provided a more recent, peer-reviewed counter: - Wilbur A. Aanes specializes in veterinary and animal surgery. - Ralph F. Abate specializes in bridge design - Ursula K. Abbott is an avian geneticist - Dirk Den Baars deals in the exploring and mining of copper and precious metals - P. S. Gaal works with the transport properties of materials These are just a select few of the hundreds (if not thousands) of scientists who signed this petition who were actually in no way qualified to do so. To restate: This petition is old and outdated I have provided a more recent, peer-reviewed, established petition which directly counters Pro's claim The signatories on Pro's petition are largely unqualified to opine on the matter To summarize this round's argument: Pro initially stated that Tesla was their source for all of their facts. Actually, their claims were all copied and pasted from a forum to which anyone can post. Pro claimed that Tesla's stance was one in line with his/hers, but did nothing to counter my proof that their stance was just the opposite Pro attempted to find new sources to support the points he/she found on the Tesla forum, but ultimately used ones that either proved exactly the opposite of what they were trying to say or were from non-scientific, opinion-based, unqualified sources It is clear that Pro did not read many of these sources as the claims he/she seems to think some of them prove are actually the description of the very myth they debunk

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Man-Made-Global-Warming-Isnt-Real/1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.18

    climate: 7.41

    premises: 6.16 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 1.28)

    sourceText: 1.24 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.09)

    change: 1.98

    premises: 1.62 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.63)

    sourceText: 0.36 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.94)

    real: 8.79

    conclusion: 6.28 (boost 1.50, idf 4.74, tfNorm 0.88)

    premises: 2.16 (idf 2.61, tfNorm 0.83)

    sourceText: 0.34 (boost 0.20, idf 0.92, tfNorm 1.87)
• CON

  Important small scale processes cannot be explicitly...

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  Resolved: Countries ought work to end climate change/global warming.

  My opponents case goes as follows: 1. Global warming is an issue (exists and is man made) 2. Global warming causes disasters and hurts the economy. Now, my arguments on (2) proved environmental regulation bad. Further, (1) is the most important issue. If 1 is proven not to exist, or not man made I win the debate as fighting a natural problem spending billions of dollars is futile and a waste, and if global warming does exist (something my opponent has not responded too) I then win the debate. I have proven both of these points false. I will proceed: Fraud and methodology: Now, my opponent goes on to claim my data is false because it does not cover the whole world, (surface scanners) yet I have proven this. ANY surface scanner in an urban area will logically have a higher temperature reading then one in a rural one. I have proven throughout this debate this dilemma affected all surface scanners in all countries as all countries made this mistake. My opponent also ignores my case on how computer models (computer models is all of the evidence pro global warming) is highly flawed. Based on all of the computer model data, their predictions have always been wrong and exaggerated. [1] Every model made over guesses the amount of warming and exaggerates it ALL. As the IPCC notes in the book I am citing: “Models still show significant error, important large scale problems also remain. … Important small scale processes cannot be explicitly represented in models … Significant uncertainties, in particular are associated with resentation of clouds, and in the resulting cloud responses to climate change”.[1] This essentially means all of the global warming fata is flawed. My opponent ignored this point, although I did state it last round, hence the point still stands. My opponent then claims my data on scandals is not enough, I actually agree, BUT this does show large studies (the IPCC) are no longer accurate, and if readers scan my opponents sources and then the sources within the source, it always cites the IPCC. My opponents data is now highly faulty on those grounds. The point still stands. CO2 and N2O: My opponents claim here is his evidence refutes my CO2 claim, this is actually false. Nowhere in this debate (I have read your responses 3 times just by that comment) did I actually see you do; a) even find a correlation b) show that cycles from 1000s of years ago find a correlation. My opponent finds only a correlation in modern day times in round two, but this is highly refutable with natural cycles. There are major cycles every 11,000 years or so (stated) and minor changes every 1500 years or so (also stated). Now, the current warming phase was highly predictable using the 1500 year cycle data. This 1500 year cycle is well documented.[2] This fully explains the current warming phase. Further if CO2 was a climate factor, if we saw natural increases in CO2 there would also be natural rises in temperature hundreds of years ago, and there is no correlation, therefore the correlation fails on a scientific basis. Using figure 2.4 in source (1) we observe no statistical correlation, CO2 is low temperature may be high or vice versa. This right here disproves the theory. (If CO2 actually had an impact, natural increases would also raise temperature, it did not, hence it has no correlation) N2O may or may not make warming, but as I pointed out last round N2O is mainly a natural gas, and it does not have enough ppm (parts per million) to have any effects. My opponent ignores this analysis. My opponent also introduces new arguments last round (methane etc, never mentioned before this point) which is a conduct violation and basic DDO informal rules mean these arguments are thrown out. My opponent argued CO2 and N2O the whole debate, adding new substances last round is a conduct violation AND is discounted. May the judge rule “jury, ignore the previous statement.” Ice Sheets You NEVER argued overall ice sheets, you argued the same ones I argued, hence your argumentation here is a LIE. I have argued this whole debate: Northern ice expanding Southern ice expanding Various glaciers also expanding I covered almost every glacier, they are all expanding. My opponent this round actually dodges last rounds argumentation, hence I win the point. My opponent dropped arguments Global cooling Computer models (all of global warming “evidence”) is faulty Global warming does not exist (my opponent abandoned this idea round 3) CONCLUSION/VOTING ISSUES: My opponent dropped some of the 3 most critical sub points (two of them prove global warming is actually false) hence my opponent already loses the debate. Voting issues: 1) I have proven global warming is fake 2) I have proven if global warming exists, it is more likely due to sun cycles NOT emissions 3) My opponent dropped vital points. VOTE CON, it is futile to spend money on a natural occurrence OR it is futile to fight a non existent problem. [1] MacRae, Paul. “ Alarm: Global Warming-- Facts versus Fears.” Victoria, B.C.: Spring Bay, 2010. [2] Singer, S. Fred, and Dennis T. Avery. “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.” Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007.

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Resolved-Countries-ought-work-to-end-climate-change-global-warming./1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.02

    climate: 10.80

    conclusion: 6.64 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 3.02 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.63)

    sourceText: 1.14 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 1.92)

    change: 7.02

    conclusion: 5.74 (boost 1.50, idf 5.24, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 0.95 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.37)

    sourceText: 0.33 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.78)
• CON

  CO2 is NOT enough of the atmosphere to create global...

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  Resolved: Countries ought work to end climate change/global warming.

  My opponents and my case are polar opposites, if proves global warming, mine debunks it. Hence my arguments actually refute his claims, and vice versa. So essentially our arguments are exactly the opposite. So my opponent has to prove: (1) Global warming exists and/or is man made This is the only thing he needs to prove, as the rest of his case is irrelevant if humans cant contribute to the warming (hence futile and a waste of time and labor to stop it, its gonna happen anyway), and prove the world is heating up (and if the following thing is not in place, this fails). So essentially my opponent has to prove two things, I have to prove: (1) Global warming is fake and/or natural. Now, this debate is easier on me, as my opponent has the BOP (being instigator and pro), and he has to prove both points, I only need to prove one to show a futile effort or a non-existent threat. So really, the BOP is on my opponent. "Facts" about global warming: My opponents main argument against the data that proves global warming faulty is my evidence is based in america, aka the surface stations. But my opponents case ignores the point: If we are failing in the US, then why would it be better in other countries? In the US, 89% of those surface stations create false results due to the fact certain obstacles (i.e. an air conditioner) create the false signals. [1] Further what my opponent misses is that this data (much of the date her nasa source talks poetic about) relies on this US data. Further, this data was and sometimes is relied throughout the whole world, so really, why would such human error not coincide. Also, for you to validate your point, you also need to prove global surface stations are NOT biased. Also, this site is based in Malaysia (my 1 source last round), and it takes more then US data, and disproves NASA's famed graphs. [2] My opponent then claims these "scientists" account for the.... differences so to speak. The funny thing is these scientists fail in other areas in the same thing. Much of their data relies on faulty mathematical equations that force them to do a lot of assumptions, therefore begging the question of their conclusions. [3] Also to prove they account for the urban effects, I think you must prove through studies that they have dummy variables as well. My opponent then claims my argument on fraud fails to touch every, I understand that, the argument was simply to show many of the evidences you posted may have huge errors in them, hence faulty. He then goes on about CO2, I will refute this. CO2 is NOT enough of the atmosphere to create global warming, its about 3%, and 6% of that CO2 is man made. In other words: "That means that less than 2/1,000 of all CO2 is produced by human activity. So even if we wiped out every car, power plant, jet liner, and human being from the face of the earth, there would be no noticeable effect on global CO2 levels."[4] So CO2, out of the picture. My opponent then talks about N2O, laughing gas. Over 90% of N2O is naturally produced. [5] Before we can assume this has an effect, my opponent must first now show a correlation, prove it, etc. Saying it hurts the ozone is not enough until you prove humans emit it enough to have any major effects, then find me a correlation, then we talk. My opponent then claims certain areas (specifics) are not relevant, that first ignores basic statistics and then he knows makes it easier for him to win. Individual areas are great tools, as a minority effects the majority in statistics overall. If 100 kids exist, 10 are sick, that minority has a large effect if we polled are you sick. Also for there to be global warming, the ice caps are logically suppose to be melting (to account for the rise in sea waters). If I disprove this (I did) then my opponents case crumbles. also: http://www.debate.org... http://bit.ly... No upward trend. Greenland: My opponent concedes the point claiming what happens in any one area explains the whole, that means my opponents arguments are invalid too. So I extend argument, and proceed to his arctic example: Now if your interested, there is a moving graph in the source I am providing, if you look at its data the temperature STAYS THE SAME, on average. Here is how they explain it: "Each frame of animation equals one year. As you can see the temperature does fluctuate but there is clearly no significant general rise in temperature and the portion of the red curve poking above the blue line (i.e. the period when ice would melt) is clearly not growing."[6] Essentially saying the temperatures needed t melt it are not changing in length, hence ice cannot melt. "As you can plainly see the ice is getting thicker [refers to moving picture], not thinning faster than Kojak's hair. Polar Bears will not be drowning, the Walruses will not be beaching themselves due to lack of ice (which by the way is normal and not something to get over-excited about) and the Arctic Fox probably doesn't need to go on the endangered species list because of that old faux global warming." [7] Not to mention growing glaciers. [8] Global cooling: There is ~ 11 year solar cycle, the time your data shows warming. The cycle is over, scientists are now drifting to the earth is cooling, or will begin to cool. "In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel argued at the recent UN World Climate Conference in Geneva that the cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years. His explanation was a natural change in the North Atlantic circulation, not in solar activity. But no matter how you interpret them, natural variations in climate are making a comeback." [9] "Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997... Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree, as the cold ‘La Nina’ effect has re-emerged in the South Pacific." [10] http://c3headlines.typepad.com... http://www.c3headlines.com... = cooling (graphs wont post peices of.....) Benefits/Harms: Your argument only works if global warming exists, and if it is man made. If it does not exist, then only harms happen (economic). If it is man made, the regulations hurt (economic), and the other harms are inevitable, so it is futile to fight it. So, my opponent must prove both, if anything this is a sub point to the overall factors. Plus, another reason the globe is not heating up is because the atmosphere is not heating up, hence refuting all claims. [11] CONCLUSION: Vote CON, global warming is a hoax and if it exists is natural, hence my opponents case fails as it fights a nonexistent. issue or a futile natural pattern. Soures: [1] http://bit.ly... [2] http://bit.ly... [3] http://bit.ly... [4] http://bit.ly... [5] http://1.usa.gov... [6] http://bit.ly... [7] http://bit.ly... [8] http://bit.ly... [9] http://bit.ly... [10] http://bit.ly... [11] http://bit.ly...

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Resolved-Countries-ought-work-to-end-climate-change-global-warming./1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.02

    climate: 10.80

    conclusion: 6.64 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 3.02 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.63)

    sourceText: 1.14 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 1.92)

    change: 7.02

    conclusion: 5.74 (boost 1.50, idf 5.24, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 0.95 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.37)

    sourceText: 0.33 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.78)
• CON

  4] For there to be a valid correlation, it must also work...

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  Resolved: Countries ought work to end climate change/global warming.

  Fraud, methods My computer deleted my argument, so excuse me if my arguments are mainly quotes and me rushing, I will make a final appearance last round. "Regions of the world that exhibit significant warming over recent decades is likely the result of a robust urban heat island effect - South Korea's warming climate provides evidence ... Yang et al. published an extensive study on the impact of UHI on China's warming and discovered that over 40% of the increase could be explained by the UHI effect in some urban areas. ..."[1] "Likewise, the rate of increase in the annual number of daily maximum temperature 95th percentile exceedences per year over the same time period was found to be 50% greater at urban stations than it was at rural stations."[2] Quote 1 shows global problems, quote 2 shows urban/rural problems (hinting urban island effect) in the US. Further the IPCC's data (your nasa links use that as a source) are highly flawed. I will quote is from this PHD person :P: "1. Likely sources of bias in the surface temperature record of the last 150 years, which are well known and considerable, are ignored. The amount of warming is claimed to be known with a false degree of confidence. We do not, in fact, know for certain that the earth has warmed at all. 2. The profound inconsistency between the recent warming in the surface temperature record, and the absence of warming in the satellite record, is simply shrugged off. 3. The enormous, and growing, uncertainty as to the effect of aerosols on climate is masked in the discussion, and is deliberately suppressed in predicting the future. If included, the UN IPCC 100 year prediction would include the possibility of no warming or even cooling. 4. The fact that the vast majority of all greenhouse gas emissions are natural is ignored. 5. Advances in climate science that do not support the theory of human interference have been ignored."[3] Not to mention the IPCC is dictated and subject to government review, and their computer models are subject to easy editing and have been found for frauds (basically they hid data, edited data, ignored data, and used bias computer models).[4] Also more info here. [5] The methodology AND the credibility are faulty. CO2, N2O, and all that fun stuff My opponent ignores the natural factors I have listed for global warming (like the sun, I will bring it up again this round). Co2- There is no correlation until recently, there has been no historical correlation. In the past, temperatures may be low and Co2 might be high, and vice versa. [4] For there to be a valid correlation, it must also work in the historical perspective. Also to note, even if we created ALL fossil fuels and burned them, it would go from ~380 ppm (parts per million) to 600-800 ppm, under the former amounts this planet has seen.[4] Historically no correlation, hence cannot work, its only .4% of our atmosphere and only 6% of that is man made, and human fossil fuels can barely double the number, CO2 is not a villain. N2O- 70% is natural, 30% is man made. [6] 5% of the "green house effect" is N2). [7] The low concentrations mean it has no current effect to any large extent. Also, if it has an effect then it must cool the earth or have no effect, the earth is cooling,[4] also: http://www.paulmacrae.com... As we can see from these facts, the earth has not warmed since the late 1990s (90-97) its hard to cause soemthing thats not happening (my (1) argunment, also we must look at my (2) argunment before looking at your Co2 and N2O argunments). We must look at the more likely NATURAL factors in global warming, assuming it exists. Generally undereported as the IPCC decides to ignore those factors (see above). Now, there HAS been warming in the 20th century, and according to nasa estimates we have seen an increase in solar activity in that time. Now his is important, as if sustained for a while (1850-1997) it can lead to large increases in temperture, then begin to flat line temperture, then lead to cooling. The sun plays the largest role (even in alarmists eyes) in heating and cooling cycles. In germany, people claim to have the highest sun activity in 1000 years! [4] This basic cycle is what is heaing the earth in the early 21st and late 20th century.Further, there is a scientific fact sunspots = more activity, therefore more warming. There is enough sun spots to lead to warming, hence the increases are natural [highly likely]. (note my opponent never refted this, and just ignores my data). Also there is a 1500 year cycle. This creates interglacial cycles (like the one that is ending in which we are in). The cycle is +/- 500 years. It is unstoppable global warming, like what we are in, therefore global warming prevention is poorly thought out. Overall tempertures I understand this, I have shown local cooling in these areas which rise the sea (you argue shrinking ice sheets, I countered it with an oppisite argunment). Hence my point was a counter to yours (you used it as global warming, it is hyprocritical to say I cant use it, then your evidence here is irrelevant too). So if my opponent means what he says round 2 AND this round, much of his C1 is irrelevant, hence the main leg of his case. Greenland You never refuted my evidence until now, just claimed it irrelevant. Hence you dropped my argunment (until now) and proved your C1 largely irrelevant. "This past week, climatologist Cliff Harris of the Coeur d’Alene Press received an astounding report from Yakutat, Alaska, concerning the Hubbard Glacier. The glacier is advancing toward Gilbert Point near Yakutat at the astonishing rate of two meters (seven feet) per day!"[8] (so... isn't alaska part of the artic which is losing glaciers you claim?) "The overall ice thickness changes are ... approximately plus 5 cms (1.9 inches) a year or 54 cms (21.26 inches) over 11 years," according to the experts at Norwegian, Russian and U.S. institutes led by Ola Johannessen at the Mohn Sverdrup center for Global Ocean Studies and Operational Oceanography in Norway." [9] (wait, so its thickening?) "East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week's meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown "significant cooling in recent decades." [10]So its getting colder... Global Cooling No, my argunments also rely on NOAA.gov data. Use 1997-2012 data. downward trend. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov... graph wont show, put in 1997-2012, there is a down trend. CONCLUSION: World not heating, world heating may be natural, world might be cooling, vote CON, cant fix a non stoppable or non existant problem. [1] http://www.c3headlines.com... [2] http://www.co2science.org... [3] http://www.john-daly.com... [4] Paul MacRae "False Alarm, Global Warming – Facts Versus Fears" Spring Bay Press, British Columbia Canada. [5] http://paulmacrae.com... [6] http://en.wikipedia.org... [7] http://www.physicalgeography.net... [8] http://www.iceagenow.com... [9] http://www.iceagenow.com... [10] http://www.foxnews.com...

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Resolved-Countries-ought-work-to-end-climate-change-global-warming./1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 18.02

    climate: 11.74

    conclusion: 6.64 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 3.96 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.83)

    sourceText: 1.14 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 1.92)

    change: 6.07

    conclusion: 5.74 (boost 1.50, idf 5.24, tfNorm 0.73)

    sourceText: 0.33 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.78)
• CON

  Polar ice is expanding We can see from data in Greenland...

  Show full argument

  Resolved: Countries ought work to end climate change/global warming.

  My case is essentially a counter case to my opponents, so it refutes his arguments in and of itself. 1. Global warming, true? Much of the data that claims the world is heating is actually unreliable, the classic examples (cited in most global warming editorials) is the ground heaters that show massive increases, yet the funny thing is they are unreliable. First, these scanners started seeing heat at certain times, mainly around 2000. At the same time, many of these stations where previously recording no change. But in 2000, many of the recorders where moved or things where built. Many where found like this. One started seeing increased temperatures, BUT the time it saw an increase is when an are conditioner was installed next to it. [1] Now this is a problem as the air conditioner emits hot air, hence the increases in these modules can be linked to the air conditioner. Many of the recorders used where moved into urban areas when previously where rooted in the suburbs. They saw an increase, obviously, they installed them next to roads, asphalt reflects heat, metal buildings, same problems as roads, and then again a lot near air conditioners. A kid could see the problems with this. Other stations saw growth if they where rooted in suburbs, then the suburbs expanded in population, more houses roads etc. [2] As we can see this has serious problems as these highly cited materials fall into one basic problem: The extra asphalt, man made heating objects therefore emit heat near the censors confounding the result, hence there is a likely hood many of the stats you cite are, well, unreliable. Further many of the large studies that show global warming are highly exaggerated, and have been found of fraud accounts. Hence the data my opponent cites is data, but whether or not the data is fabricated is another question. [3] 89% of global warming detectors failed to meet accuracy standards due to the reasons above. [8] Quote: " The southern hemisphere of the earth has been generally cooling for the past fifty years, Hundreds of years of data show that temperature rises precede increase in CO2 levels, rather than following them, Ice cover at the north and south pole is growing, which results in more glaciers breaking away Throughout the 20th Century, temperatures have been rising on other planets in our solar system – including Mars, Jupiter, Pluto, and Triton, Neptune's largest moon – where few people drive SUVs. This clearly points to increased solar activity as the cause of global warming on the Earth, rather than any human activity." [10] http://a-sceptical-mind.com... (graphs) My graphs aren't posting anymore, its really annoying, is it like this for everybody? I cant ask Ima for cnfidnetial reasons. 2. Polar ice is expanding We can see from data in Greenland that the ice and snow is actually expanding, not decreasing like Al Gore would claim. As we can see: "Though the ice may be melting around the edges of the Greenland Icecap in recent years during the warm mode of the AMO much as it did during the last warm phase in the 1930s to 1950s, snow and ice levels continue to rise in most of the interior. Johannessen in 2005 estimated an annual net increase of ice by 2 inches a year." [4] Cold war satellites (during time of their function), find that the ice is expanding continually in Greenland, and not decreasing. These stations first received 4 feet of snow, per fall, but in 2006 many of the stations where semi-burried by the snow. The site, formerly alive, is now buried in snow, while greenland ice expands. [5] Now what about overall arctic ice volume? Using US navy data the volume of the ice is increasing and the ice is expanding. [6] "The blink map above shows the change in ice thickness from May 27, 2008 to May 27, 2010. As you can see, there has been a large increase in the area of ice more than two metres thick – turquoise, green, yellow and red. Much of the thin (blue and purple) ice has been replaced by thicker ice." [6] So the thin ice is being defeated, this implies that the ice is getting thicker, this requires colder temperatures, this is an "arrow to the knee" for global warming proponents. How can ice get thicker under warmer temperatures, and how can formerly thin ice get thicker? 3. Global cooling? Now, this is generally pushed to the side in most climate change debates. Well yaddy blah blah blank my liberal science teacher said X. People are mainly going of knee jerk reactions look towards the "majority". Ice in the caps are one way both sides look at the global warming debacle. New data has come to light, we see the earth is no longer "warming", assuming those faulty data sets are correct, but cooling. [7] Now if the things near metal buildings are seeing cooling, this means the earth must be REALLY cooling down to show a decrease. "As Robert Felix just reported in his authoritative iceagenow.com, on various days is June of 2009 there were record low temperatures in 18 states; record low temperatures in 15 states; record low temperatures in 24 states; record low temperatures in 11 states; record low max temperatures in 20 states; record low temperatures in seven states; and record low temperatures in 10 states." [8] 4. Even if the earth is warming, it may be natural. http://www.forbes.com... (page two graph) Due to the predicatable fluctuations, we can assume we could predict the cycles and it also shows that global warmign is also caused by a natural cause. Also: http://www.isil.org... (half way down graph[s]) This also shows the earths temperture is constantly changing, and we can assume it is a natural fluctuation. With this data, the resolution is negated as even if you prove the global wamring scare, you need to explain the natura fluctuations which easily explain it. If global warmign exists, the governments CANT do anything to stop natural cycles, hence it would be a waste of reasources. 5. Economic harms of regulations First if we assume humans create this phenomona, we must ask what is the cause? The most common claim is human CO2 and oil usage, natural gas etc. But these regulations DO harm the economy. Many of tese regulations are huge costs to buisness, this is hard on them as now they must eiher give up or find ways to compensate (fire workers, or declare bankrupsy), and then no body is helped. These regulations hurt buisness by raising costs, and higher costs to buisness hurt the companies, econ 101. Further, many of these regulations outsoruce jobs for the reason above, or actually make it impossible to do X here, so they do X in china as they can actually do stuff there. One perfect regulaton is the congress' plan to regulate 85% of energy, this harms big time. It is estimated to lease 85% of our energy, and prevent them from drilling on areas that could sustain us from Saudi Arabias imports for 30 years. [9] So these regulations FORCE other countries to take our supplies, well not take, but replace and indirectly take out jobs. Sorry, tese regulaitosn hurt us. CONCLUSION: My case disproves global warming claims, and proves if global warming occurs it is likely natural, hence if it doesn't exist its a waste of time, if it does exist but is natural its a waste of time, if the earth is cooling it is a waste of time, and if it hurts the economy it is one colstly downside. My case esentially refutes my opponents, and I used facts. I urge a CON vote. _________ [1] http://bit.ly... [2] http://bit.ly... [3] http://onforb.es... [4] http://bit.ly... [5] http://bit.ly... [6] http://bit.ly... [7] http://on.wsj.com... [8] http://bit.ly... [9] http://bit.ly... [10] http://bit.ly...

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Resolved-Countries-ought-work-to-end-climate-change-global-warming./1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 17.95

    climate: 9.54

    conclusion: 6.64 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 1.76 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.37)

    sourceText: 1.14 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 1.92)

    change: 8.20

    conclusion: 5.74 (boost 1.50, idf 5.24, tfNorm 0.73)

    premises: 2.13 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.83)

    sourceText: 0.33 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.78)
• CON

  Others however disagree with Solanski et al. on whether...

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  The sun drives the global climate

  Others however disagree with Solanski et al. on whether sunspot activity correlates with temperature changes and on whether we are in the most active period for several thousand years. Muscheler et al. The link between the visually based sunspot numbers and solar-modulation parameter is neither straightforward nor yet understood, and also that solar modulation must have reached or exceeded today’s magnitudes three times during the past millennium... The reconstruction by Solanki et al. implies generally less solar forcing during the past millennium than in the second part of the twentieth century, whereas our reconstruction indicates that solar activity around AD 1150 and 1600 and in the late eighteenth century was probably comparable to the recent satellite-based observations. Both Muscheler and Solanski agree that "solar activity reconstructions tell us that only a minor fraction of the recent global warming can be explained by the variable Sun."[[Raimund Muscheler, Fortunat Joos, Simon A. Müller, Ian Snowball, 'How unusual is today’s solar activity?', Nature, 431, 1084–1087 (2004), http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf%5D%5D In other words even if the sun is having some effect the majority of climate change is still being caused by other factors of which the most likely is humans. Influence of the Sun does not seem to be so great on global warming trends. Surprisingly, even though average temperatures are still rising(the 2000s are on track to be nearly 0.2°C warmer than the 1990s. And that temperature jump is especially worrisome since the 1990s were only 0.14°C warmer than the 1980s[[http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/]].), solar activity is at a minimum, as reported by NASA in April 2009: NASA, April 1, 2009 2008 was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%). To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days: plot. Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008. Maybe not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%). It adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. [[http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm]]

  • https://debatewise.org/debates/1757-man-made-climate-change-is-a-myth/
  • score

    BM25 score: 17.82

    climate: 15.16

    conclusion: 10.15 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 1.12)

    premises: 3.73 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.78)

    sourceText: 1.28 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.14)

    change: 2.40

    premises: 2.00 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.78)

    sourceText: 0.39 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 2.11)
• CON

  In debate we call that a Biased Sample Fallacy coupled...

  Show full argument

  Governments should require that funded climate data be posted

  Pro: No Matter what the final outcome of this debate may be, I thank you for an extremely well-structured debate based upon one of today's most pressing questions. Thank you for the honor of allowing me to present the Con Position. Pro has stated he is having trouble figuring out what I was claiming with respect to the contentions. I understand his confusion since I meant to say I was refuting his claims of results that most likely would result. I apologize for the error and will be more careful in the future. Too bad the spell checker cannot flag those kind of errors. Pro contends that by posting on the internet the data supporting the publication of findings by a particular scientist or group, that the raw historical data be included in the posting along with the software used to analyze and plot that data, be included. On the surface this sounds good but here is the problem: If a group was to come across a small data set that refuted their other findings, but that that data was obtained in an unsatisfactory manner (such as some measurements being taken during an unusually warm period due to other than usual conditions, they would have to show the erroneous data and explain it omission in the overall results. Here is where the pundits come in: I can hear it now, "They just threw out data they didn't like!...This proves their entire theory is wrong and it is probably been cooked to get more tax money!" In debate we call that a Biased Sample Fallacy coupled with the Red Herring Fallacy. In debate, we have the opportunity to point these fallacies out and moving on, letting the judges decide. In real life, once the pundits latch on to something they think they can run with, in this case, not the "missing data" but the tax money. Scientists can counter the arguments all they want, but the anti's will still be the loudest. It is for this reason the raw data and the process of analysis (which may include the non-consideration of some data) being presented to the public would be counter-productive, thus confirming Con's position. I said I wouldn't get into the debate of global climate change per se so I will admit that the same scenario could be played out to the opposite side but the result would be the same...degenerating the vital investigation into this question into a debate of semantics rather than allowing the truth to emerge. Regardless of which side one is on, it is the truth should be the goal, not just an individual's (or a political party's or special interest group's)preset agenda. This whole question has become a political football, no longer a scientific investigation into a very important subject. Pro has, in fact, admitted that [quote]" There is no concern that unqualified people in the general public will critique climate research software. The general public cannot comprehend it."[end quote] therefore solidifying Con's position that there is no good reason to release the data he suggest to the public, but to restrict it's exposure to qualified scientists, other than to allow non-professionals, with no prestigious standing at risk, to cherry-pick data to foist upon the unsuspecting and admittedly gullible public as the absolute truth. This alone, should be enough to vote in favor of Con. Pro contends that the "hockey stick graph" contained a "major error" that caused it removal from the 2007 IPCC report. However, it was not the major error but the removal of the questionable data was portrayed by certain highly placed politicians who were admittedly opposed to any suggestion that global warming could be a real occurrence. http://en.wikipedia.org... The fact that the "Medieval Warming" and the "Little Ice Age" were left out due to the suspect nature of the data and the relatively slow temperature rise shown by even the suspected data over several hundreds of years compared to the comparatively rapid rise over less than one hundred years, did not discourage the critics of the issue one bit, with the pundits again exclaiming how the figures were deliberately falsified to simply satisfy some unknown benefactor holding the enormous purse strings of the federal budget. http://www.windows.ucar.edu... Pro has said that all the data should be produced "for all to see, without a bunch of nonsense obstacles." But then, since the public wouldn't comprehend it, it would still become, not a scientific question but a political football with each side pointing fingers and claiming the other guy was wrong and the "unqualified people in the general public" would be the ones left to make the decision of which side was "right." Pro's contentions have all been supported by questionable and debatable outcomes based on illegal and unethical "evidence" that has been sensationalized to create an adversarial atmosphere surrounding the entire field of research. It is not my contention that either side is correct - just that the public exposure of esoteric (at least among the general public) methods of analysis is counter-productive to determining the truth behind the science. Therefore, Con refutes the resolution as written.

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Governments-should-require-that-funded-climate-data-be-posted/1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 17.33

    climate: 13.27

    conclusion: 8.03 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.88)

    premises: 3.98 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 0.83)

    sourceText: 1.26 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.11)

    change: 1.66

    premises: 1.32 (idf 2.58, tfNorm 0.51)

    sourceText: 0.35 (boost 0.20, idf 0.93, tfNorm 1.87)

    real: 2.40

    premises: 2.17 (idf 2.61, tfNorm 0.83)

    sourceText: 0.23 (boost 0.20, idf 0.92, tfNorm 1.24)
• CON

  5] Even Kevin Trenberth (from the Mann et al. ... [1]...

  Show full argument

  Global climate models are accurate enough to be relied upon

  Thanks Pro for concise and focused argument. General limitations of Climate modelling In perfect scenario, we would have simple deterministic mathematical model to simulate deterministic phenomena on which we can run multiple experiments with controlled conditions in order to validate the model. While for example engineering simulations can comply with such scenario to some extent, complex phenomena in economic, social or climate sciences are another story. We don't have enough beforehand knowledge about every important climate feedback so we in fact estimate such feedback's with the model itself based on its output compared to measurements. But unless we know all other forcing that can influence output in similar way, we won't get good estimate of the parameter we look for. For example Koutsoyiannis[1] or Tennekes[2] (extending on Poper and Lorenz) challenge the notion that complex models could ever be reliable according to their nature. "Theories that are complex may become untestable, even if they happen to be true."[2] etc. If we look at QT's definition of GCM, it is clear that to fulfill their purpose, those models must have the structure of forcings and feedbacks right. We won't get reliable "scenario predictions", no matter how lucky we are in predicting aggregated mean temperature if the true causes are different then we thought. What is the reliability of current GCMs in scientists eyes? "We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe... Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections are also poor."[1] "We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century' model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean."[3] "These weaknesses combine to make GCM-based predictions too uncertain to be used as the bases for public policy responses related to future climate changes." [4] "So there has been a large activity to bring models and observations into agreement, strangely only by adjusting the measurements instead of adjusting the models. "[5] Even Kevin Trenberth (from the Mann et al. group) now acknowledges many of the GCM's troubles in his paper "More knowledge, less certainty"[6] publicly. "The scientific literature is filled with studies documenting the inability of even the most advanced GCMs to accurately model radiation, clouds, and precipitation."[7] For those interested, NIPCC report [7] and their topical updates [8] provide comprehensive information about studies dealing with GCM reliability. Refutation As you put it, Hansen's predictions look totally perfect and within 100th of degree of Celsius. Lets examine the claim. "Dr. Jim's 1988 projections weren't looking so good, so he dropped an apple in the middle of his oranges. The red line is land only temperatures, but his projections were for global temperatures."[9] Let us also compare it with satellite [10] and other [11] data. Now suppose I made highly oscillating prediction. At some points in time, my prediction would be always spot on as it would cross the real data. Look back at the figures. Where is this precision from 2006 until now, or in early nineties? Also note that curve C assumes "emissions drastically reduced" in 1990 [10,11]. I therefore call this conduct a fallacy of cherry-picking. On top of that, Hansen is known for not so transparent temperature data manipulation.[12,13] Dessler's assumptions are refuted by Spencer's satellite observations [14], supporting rather Lindzen's hypothesis:"Our measured sensitivity of total (SW + LW) cloud radiative forcing to tropospheric temperature is -6.1 W *m^-2 K^-1... This decrease in ice cloud coverage is nominally supportive of Lindzen's 'infrared iris' hypothesis." "This is exactly opposite of the way all climate models behave," as Spencer put it in his own words in [15]. (technical note: Don't take the whole video as extension of my argument. Its used only as source of the quote in 6:19 and for information purpose as I acknowledge I must make my argument myself on this page within its limitations.) Now lets see the warming troposphere, because it was predicted it would be significantly warmed by CO2 forcing. See figures 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 for PCM model prediction and 3.4.3 for radiosondes. Updated study [17], taking in account errors stated by Pro, supports overall warming trend in troposphere of +0.052 ± 0.07 K per decade (while RSS temperature is somewhat higher then other methods, but much less then models). That is in good agreement what the figure 3.4.3, but in complete disagreement with figure 3.4.2 (also note the scales). The problem is not whether the troposphere warmed, but how much it warmed (1.2 °C at hotspot vs 0-0.3°C) and how different layers warmed relative to each other. The model predicted much stronger warming in troposphere then on surface, but that is not true. It means that model is wrong about GHG forcing or feedbacks in troposphere. Conclusion Models may be useful in furthering our knowledge of the problem, mostly by showing us what our assumptions really mean. If we are humble enough and learn from comparing our assumptions to measurements, we can learn from our mistakes. But the climate models fail if used as defined by Pro. [1] http://www.tandfonline.com... [2] http://ff.org... [3] http://www.pas.rochester.edu... [4] http://www.ncpa.org... [5] http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com... [6] http://www.nature.com... [7] http://www.nipccreport.org... [8] http://www.nipccreport.org... [9] http://sppiblog.org... [10] http://www.climate-skeptic.com... [11] http://rankexploits.com... [12] http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com... [13] http://www.omsj.org... [14] http://www.drroyspencer.com... [15] Video: "Why the IPCC Models...." http://www.youtube.com... [16] http://www.nipccreport.org..., pages 106-108 [17] https://www.cfa.harvard.edu...

  • https://www.debate.org/debates/Global-climate-models-are-accurate-enough-to-be-relied-upon/1/
  • score

    BM25 score: 17.21

    climate: 15.79

    conclusion: 8.03 (boost 1.50, idf 6.06, tfNorm 0.88)

    premises: 6.50 (idf 4.80, tfNorm 1.36)

    sourceText: 1.26 (boost 0.20, idf 2.98, tfNorm 2.12)

    real: 1.10

    premises: 0.96 (idf 2.61, tfNorm 0.37)

    sourceText: 0.14 (boost 0.20, idf 0.92, tfNorm 0.77)