PRO

  • PRO

    Yes, but natural sinks of Co2 outweigh natural sources....

    ManBearPig is real.

    Round two arguments Picture of consensus studies. [2] Picture of expertise and agreement graph. [2] Graph of Co2 highest in 800,000 years. [3] Pie graph of Co2 being main driver of climate change [4] Temperature graph of ocean, land, ice, and air starting at 1960 [5] Glacier cumulative volume decreasing graph. [6] Human fingerprint picture. [7] As you can see there can be no doubt from the above pictures and graphs that climate change is happening, humans are the cause, and Co2 is the main driver. A person may ask, but is there not natural sources of Co2? Yes, but natural sinks of Co2 outweigh natural sources. Meaning nature is a net sink of Co2. This can be seen by more Co2 going into the ocean than out and the resulting ocean acidification. Sources 2. https://skepticalscience.com... 3. http://www.climatecentral.org... 4. https://www.epa.gov... 5. https://skepticalscience.com... 6. https://skepticalscience.com... 7. https://skepticalscience.com...

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/ManBearPig-is-real./2/
  • PRO

    And even if it did, progress would be too slow. ......

    Recycling paper is a good way to fight climate change.

    You said all other things being equal, if we follow this we are turning this into a completely hypothetical debate, and means this debate would serve no purpose, it would be totally pointless. You have to consider reality. The impact of recycling simply is not that great on the tree farming industry. Even recycled paper requires a certain amount of new pulp to be added. As well, not everyone differentiates between reycled and non-recycled paper, and this means that the two are not always competing. Essentially, your next point is rather similar to the first, but I will say that if recycled paper has an effect on the demand for new paper, it is very small. New paper still greatly outweights old paper in terms of production. I was saying that with the rising demand, the amount of trees would either slowly grow, or at least stay neutral. 2. Onto the subject of natural forests v. farmed forests. A. When you cut down a tree, you reduce the amount of carbon dioxide it will be using, and thus it will be less useful to the environment. B. Older trees do not stop growing unless they are dead. Perhaps you've seen the rings? In any case, an older/larger tree will always use more carbon dioxide than a smaller one, such as the ones coming from a tree farm. C. Cutting down forests will reduce the amount of carbon dioxide they use, if they are smaller, they do not need as much carbon dioxide as they did when they were bigger, it's pretty simple. D. Of course commercial trees have roots, but they don't have as developed of a root system. You also didn't deny that farmed trees are less beneficial when it comes to biodiversity and preventing erosion, which takes me to the next point. E. If more soil erodes, then there will be less trees/plants. Farmed forests do not have the developed root system to prevent this. Erosion leads to less land for plants/trees to grow on, which means the forest will be using up less carbon dioxide (and therefore less beneficial to the environment). F. Plants dying can cause other animals to die as well. Because all the ecosystems on earth are inter-related, this can have adverse effects on life everywhere, and further climate change. 2. I don't think you understood me, so here I go: A. Non-developed nations (which contribute more to climate change than developed ones) do not have tree-farming industries, if they need paper, they are going to chop down forests. B. These countries tend not to replant the forests, and if they do not recycle, they will simply cut down more and more. C. Recycling is the key to protecting these developed native forests. These forests also have great amounts of plant life that will be lost if the trees are cut down. The loss of all these plants/trees is bad for the environment, and this clear-cutting will create a sort of desert, one where erosion occurs, and it becomes even more difficult to replant. Continuation of 2. : Ah yes, a poor country genetically-engineering its crops. That's honestly not going to happen, although it would certainly be a good thing. And even if it did, progress would be too slow. I never said that commercial forests do nothing for the environment, simply that established forests do more, and you have not been able to refute this. You say that these forests stand in the way of growth? Than where will these countries plant these commercial forests, if they have not the room for national ones? My entire point is that recycling could preserve these forests, and you haven't proven that this isn't true. You just say that it will happen anyway, but if these countries recycle, they will not need to cut down these old forests. With a little bit of replanting, and a lot of recycling, these important forests can be saved. 3. Recycling is cheaper than manufacturing A. Recycling is simply cheaper than manufacturing. Commercial forests require massive amounts of fertilizer and water. This costs a great deal of money, as well, these commercial forests must have their wood transported as well, and then processed. B. [What you say the recycling process is: Recycling is a manufacturing process: Trucks have to come by, pick up the paper, treat it with chemicals, and repackage it] Indeed, the paper must be picked up, treated, and repackaged. Yet the same steps apply to new paper, the wood must be picked up, treated, and packaged. As well, there are the costs of water, fertilizer, chemicals to kill weeds, etc. In other words, recycling is the cheaper process. C. As I said earlier, poorer countries will pick the cheaper process, which is recycling. You say in your refutation that poor countries would want to develop industries, but you fail to recognize that recycling IS an industry. And it would be cheaper for the country to establish a recycling industry than a commercial tree growing one, especially since these countries are already very crowded, they need all the efficiency they can get. D. Also in your refutation, you say that commercial trees use up more carbon dioxide. I have already refuted this, but I shall again. When cut down, the capacity for these commercial trees to convert carbon dioxide into oxygen is reduced. That means that for a substantial part of the year they will have limited use in regulating carbon dioxide. As well, you claim that they will use up more carbon dioxide as they are growing, but you fail to recognize that old forests are constantly growing as well. E. (applies to D.) Recycling as I've said, will increase efficiency and preserve old, important forests. Most of these countries don't have room for giant tree farms, and recycling is a must, or we'll see the end of the massive forests which truly regulate carbon dioxide. Final: First of all, there's no reason to be rude. And let me say that it's been a good intelligent debate, better than what I see on most sites. Now onto my points, what I was saying previously was that you were not really calculating the costs of not recycling in other countries, particularly those without commercial tree farming. And as I've already explained, it really isn't that hard for countries to recycle (it's far less demanding than most regualtions placed), recycling IS cheaper than growing new trees. That's what will count in poor countries, the lower cost. Finally, I included the voting thing because I'm a policy debater, and it's kind of a habit (in my state there's some damn lazy judges, you've got to do their thinking for them). And honestly, I'm not following any sort of pious superstition, I'm looking at reality, I'm looking at the facts.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Recycling-paper-is-a-good-way-to-fight-climate-change./1/
  • PRO

    After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded...

    Man-Made Global Warming Isn't Real

    The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. = 1. The 0.7 - 0.9"C increase in the average global temperature over the last hundred years is entirely consistent with well-established, long-term, natural climate trends. 2. The slight increase in temperature which has been observed since 1900 is entirely consistent with well-established, long-term natural climate cycles 3. It is claimed the average global temperature increased at a dangerously fast rate in the 20th century but the recent rate of average global temperature rise has been between 1 and 2 degrees C per century - within natural rates The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost and average of 281 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 119 billion tons during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade./Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world " including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. 1. It is myth that receding glaciers are proof of global warming as glaciers have been receding and growing cyclically for many centuries. 2. It is a falsehood that the earth"s poles are warming because that is natural variation and while the western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer we also see that the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder. 3. Research goes strongly against claims that CO2-induced global warming would cause catastrophic disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. 4. It is a falsehood that the earth"s poles are warming because that is natural variation and while the western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer we also see that the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier. 1. There is strong evidence from solar studies which suggests that the Earth"s current temperature stasis will be followed by climatic cooling over the next few decades Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century. 1. Politicians and activists claim rising sea levels are a direct cause of global warming but sea levels rates have been increasing steadily since the last ice age 10,000 ago. The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. 1. Warmer periods of the Earth"s history came around 800 years before rises in CO2 levels. 2. Throughout the Earth"s history, temperatures have often been warmer than now and CO2 levels have often been higher - more than ten times as high. 3. Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost and average of 281 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 119 billion tons during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade. 1. I already refuted this before. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth"s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 1. Already refuted this 2. After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940. "It is 'extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature' from 1951 to 2010 was caused by human activity. By 'extremely likely', it meant that there was between a 95% and 100% probability that more than half of modern warming was due to humans. - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"s (IPCC) fifth assessment report. 1. There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity. 2. Man-made carbon dioxide emissions throughout human history constitute less than 0.00022 percent of the total naturally emitted from the mantle of the earth during geological history. 3. Most of global warming is completely natural. 4. A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years. "Between 93% to 123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities." - US Fourth National Climate Assessment 1. A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years. "Scientists Agree: Global Warming is Happening and Humans are the Primary Cause" - UCSUSA 1. The IPCC theory is driven by just 60 scientists and favorable reviewers not the 4,000 usually cited. 2. Leaked e-mails from British climate scientists - in a scandal known as "Climate-gate" - suggest that that has been manipulated to exaggerate global warming 3. A petition by scientists trying to tell the world that the political and media portrayal of global warming is false was put forward in the Heidelberg Appeal in 1992. Today, more than 4,000 signatories, including 72 Nobel Prize winners, from 106 countries have signed it. 4. A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest in history. ["] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia." - IPCC AR5 1. There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity. 2. Man-made carbon dioxide emissions throughout human history constitute less than 0.00022 percent of the total naturally emitted from the mantle of the earth during geological history. 3. After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940. 4. Warmer periods of the Earth"s history came around 800 years before rises in CO2 levels. 5. Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas, unlike water vapor which is tied to climate concerns, and which we can"t even pretend to control Of all the radiative forcings analysed, only increases in greenhouse gas emissions produce the magnitude of warming experienced over the past 150 years." - Berkeley Earth 1. There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity. 2. After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940. 3. Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas, unlike water vapour which is tied to climate concerns, and which we can"t even pretend to control Today, CO2 levels are 40 percent higher than they were before the Industrial Revolution began; they have risen from 280 parts per million in the 18th century to over 400 ppm in 2015 and are on track to reach 410 ppm this spring. In addition, there is much more methane (a greenhouse gas 84 times more potent than CO2 in the short term) in the atmosphere than at any time in the past 800,000 years"two and a half times as much as before the Industrial Revolution. While some methane is emitted naturally from wetlands, sediments, volcanoes and wildfires, the majority of methane emissions come from oil and gas production, livestock farming and landfills." - Earth Institute, Columbia University 1. There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity. 2. Man-made carbon dioxide emissions throughout human history constitute less than 0.00022 percent of the total naturally emitted from the mantle of the earth during geological history. 3. Warmer periods of the Earth"s history came around 800 years before rises in CO2 levels. 4. After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940. Today, almost 100 percent [plus or minus 20 percent] of the unusual warmth that we"ve experienced in the last decade is due to greenhouse gas emissions," - Peter de Menocal, dean of science at Columbia University and founding director of Columbia"s Center for Climate and Life 1. There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity. 2. Despite activist concerns over CO2 levels, CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas, unlike water vapor which is tied to climate concerns, and which we can"t even pretend to control If the sun were brighter, we would see warming all the way up through the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere to the mesosphere. We don"t see this. We see instead warming at the surface, cooling in the stratosphere, cooling in the mesosphere. And that"s a signature of greenhouse gas forcing, it"s not a signature of solar forcing. So we know it"s not solar." - Gavin Schmidt, director of National Aeronautics and Space Administration"s Goddard Institute for Space Studies 1. A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years. Rest in comments section.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Man-Made-Global-Warming-Isnt-Real/1/
  • PRO

    My opponent appears to think that whether the IPCC is a...

    The climate is not "a changing".

    I have clearly stated that the IPCC is a communist organisation to which my opponent has not offered any counter argument. Thus, We can only assume that my opponent agrees with this statement thus far. My opponent appears to think that whether the IPCC is a communist organisation or not is relevant to the debate. My opponent should note that when participating in a debate all the items in the first round should be addressed. It is up to the judges of the debate to decide if any part of the debate is irrelevant and it is not part of con's duty or responsibility to decide what is relevant and what is not relevant. This is because the IPCC is an untrustworthy organisation which has political agendas which have nothing to do with climate. Thus, If they are using climate as a tool of political manipulation then, This should be addressed as important evidence. Just because my opponent can't see any structure in my first round doesn't imply that there is no structure. Of course, It would be of great advantage to my opponent if he could eliminate the IPCC from the debate because the IPCC has a very bad record of corruption and supplying misinformation about the My opponent appears to think that whether the IPCC is a communist organisation or not is relevant to the debate. My opponent should note that when participating in a debate all the items in the first round should be addressed. It is up to the judges of the debate to decide if any part of the debate is irrelevant and it is not part of con's duty or responsibility to decide what is relevant and what is not relevant. This is because the IPCC is an untrustworthy organisation which has political agendas which have nothing to do with climate. Thus, If they are using climate as a tool of political manipulation then, This should be addressed as important evidence. Just because my opponent can't see any structure in my first round doesn't imply that there is no structure. Of course, It would be of great advantage to my opponent if he could eliminate the IPCC from the debate because the IPCC has a very bad record of corruption and supplying misinformation about the climate. Thus, My opponent would very much rather not discuss the IPCC for these very reasons.

  • PRO

    1] Why were the predictions so confident back then. ......

    Global climate change should not be a major factor in US energy policy

    Thanks to Con for accepting this debate. The resolution covers many issues, and that will make it difficult to discuss comprehensively. The virtue is that it exposes how many assumptions are stacked to get to the present policies of heavily subsidizing uneconomic green energy and discouraging the exploitation of fossil fuels. 1. Increasing warmth and CO2 are most likely beneficial The average temperature of the earth has risen about 1 degree C in the past hundred years. [1] The earth was much warmer than the present during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) about a thousand years ago. [2] That's when Greenland was actually green and grapes grew in Scotland. The MWP was a prosperous time in human history because the growing season was longer in the temperate zone. Temperatures were warmer still during the Holocene Maximum, 5,000 to 8,000 years ago. That is when the great civilizations of the world began in China, India, and the Middle East. It was another very prosperous time. Going back in geological time, earth is currently none of the lowest points of both temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. [3] The current average global temperature is about 14.5 C (58 F). [4] For most of the period of the evolution of life forms, average global temperature was around 22 C. Life flourished. CO2 levels are now around 380 ppm, less than a tenth of early levels. [3] The main depletion of CO2 is from the microscopic skeletons of plankton capturing the CO2 in carbonates which end up in limestone at the bottoms of the oceans. Because plants evolved in conditions of high CO2, they are now relatively starved. Commercial greenhouse operators artificially raise CO2 to about double current atmospheric levels, There are a few exceptions, but nearly all plant species grow faster at higher CO2 levels. This fact is supported a vast number of peer reviewed studies. More plant growth means more food, and that's good. Humans adapt much more readily to warmer climates than cold. [6] That's apparent from the distribution of human populations. The same is true of animal species. Of course, there are extremes that cannot be tolerated, but the climate change controversy is mostly about CO2 causing changes of 1 - 4 degrees C. Warmer is better. The largest disadvantage of warmth is the rise in sea level. The latest IPCC report predicts and expected rise of nine inches in the next hundred years. 2. Climate predictions are unreliable The global warming panic peaked around 2000, when confident predictions were made that the world would fry by the year 2010. In the decade since then, the world has actually cooled. [1] Why were the predictions so confident back then. The logic was as follows: (a) the earth warmed substantially from 1980 to 2000, (b) CO2 increased during that period, (c) all other factors affecting climate had been accounted for -- it wasn't the sun, volcanoes, changes in the earth orbit or anything else, (d) therefore CO2 caused the warming. The physics of CO2 alone did not explain the warming, so a multiplying effect was hypothesized and the multiplier was found to be high. About two-dozen computer models using various models built on the same principles were used to predict the decade of 2001-2010. What actually occurred was below the error band of all the model predictions. [7] One factor that was omitted was the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a roughly-60 year cycle that peaked in the 1880s, 1930s, and 2000s, producing widespread melting of Arctic Ice at each peak. Taking the PDO into account, many now predict we are in for two or three decades of cooling. [7. 8] Last month, I attended a pitch for M.I.T.'s new effort to rebuild climate science into something reliable. [9] The prof started by saying, "I just returned from a week-long conference at Princeton. We all agreed on two things: the troposphere is warming, and we don't know why." For example, a critical element in climate models is the rate of energy transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. Recent work suggests the previous assumptions are off by a factor of ten or twenty. There are many other known deficiencies. Because climate models have been proven wrong, and wrong in the direction of wildly exaggerating CO2 effects, they should not be used a basis for public policy. We should continue research until the models prove reliable. 3. Fossil fuel restrictions in the US will have little effect Let's suppose for a moment that CO2 alarmists are correct in worrying about CO2 increases. China has 23% of the CO2 emissions, the us 18%. However, the Chinese are increasing consumption at 11% per year, while the US is about stable. World consumption is growing at 5.6%, with most of the growth in developing countries. Per capita consumption in China is a quarter that of the US. India is about 1/30. There is no possibility that China, India, and the developing world are going to stay in poverty over fear of global warming. Let's suppose the US cut it's CO2 emissions in half. Because the US population centers cover a large area, transportation needs are much greater than countries where the population is concentrated, so its a lot harder to cut energy use. If the US cut by half, India and China can be expected to grow rapidly. Their populations are now about eight times that of the US, their populations are growing faster, and they want to to advance their standard of living to US levels. The US's 18% of emissions will probably be less than 6% of the world total in 50 years. If we took drastic cuts, it might be 3%. Temperature is proportional to the logarithm of CO2 concentration. If the temperature rise were 1 degree, our policy of draconian cuts would be reduce the rise by 0.026 degree, That's negligible. There is no point in it. 4. Attempts to significantly cut CO2 would cost trillions of dollars Any measure that reduces CO2 and also cuts costs will be adopted by free markets independent of government policy. For example, fluorescent light bulbs and hybrid cars save money, so people are adopting them without a government policy forcing it. Forcing it costs an enormous amount of money. For example, there are 250 million passenger cars in the US. Replacing them with $25K hybrid vehicles would cost That's $6,5 trillion. Going to $40K electric cars would be $10 trillion. All the cars would ordinarily be replaced eventually, in about 20 years. Advancing that to replace them faster costs an amount proportional to the total. When the capital, backup, distribution costs are counted, wind power costs about five times as much as conventional power and solar power about seven times as much. Hence the green upgrade is the cost to replace all the power plants in the country, times about six. The UX needs about 900,000 megawatt. [12] A new 300 megawatt coal plant is roughly $1 billion. [13] A green energy upgrade would be about $18 trillion. On the other side of the ledger, the US has about $300 trillion worth of fossil fuels that would become worthless. [14] The GDP is $14 trillion. We cannot afford the costs, so the policy would fail. --------------------- 1. http://www.theregister.co.uk... 2. http://www.geocraft.com... 3. http://www.geocraft.com... 4. http://www.currentresults.com... 5, http://www.co2science.org... 6. http://anthro.palomar.edu... 7. http://clivebest.com... 8. http://notrickszone.com... 9. http://paoc2001.mit.edu... 10. http://www.thegwpf.org... 11. http://factspluslogic.com... 12. http://www.eia.gov... 13. http://www.jsonline.com... 14. http://factspluslogic.com...

  • PRO

    We should reduce our use of fossil fuels anyway

    Climate Change is the end of the world

    We should reduce our use of fossil fuels anyway

  • PRO

    The significant bulk of scientific research says it is...

    Climate Change is the end of the world

    The significant bulk of scientific research says it is happening

  • PRO

    con) http://www.badscience.net... ... This shows that...

    Climate denial is unusual in the scientific community

    To address them as efficiently as possible, I am listing Con's round 2 sources in my own list of round 2 references: sources 32-34 are mine, and sources 35-57 are Con's. Logical Fallacy: Fallacy [27] "You presumed that because a claim has been poorly argued, or a fallacy has been made, that the claim itself must be wrong." [27] "Example: Recognising that Amanda had committed a fallacy in arguing that we should eat healthy food because a nutritionist said it was popular, Alyse said we should therefore eat bacon double cheeseburgers every day." [27] To express Con's use of this Fallacy, I expressed the difference between making an error in the trajectory of Celestial bodies and concluding that Newton's calculus does not work. Con's response? "I believe this is the first time that I have ever seen someone employ the "logical fallacy" card in a way as to be, in itself, a logical fallacy" - Con. Just one question - did Con honestly click on my 27th source? Pointing out the logical fallacies of an argument is not Ad Hominem, Blind Loyalty, or "ignoring every argument." Ad Hominem ignores the content stated by an individual to attack their character. Logical Fallacies are based solely on the content stated by the individual. Misrepresentation and The strawman fallacy [28] "By exaggerating, misrepresenting, or just completely fabricating someone's argument, it's much easier to present your own position as being reasonable, but this kind of dishonesty serves to undermine honest rational debate." I took three paragraphs to explain the science of the Greenhouse Effect and its associated concerns, and that they had been ignored by Con and misrepresented with concerns about wildfires and hurricanes. Con's response: "Yes, there has been a very large misrepresentation of the concerns. In essence, there aren't any." Is it fair to say this constitutes the misrepresentation of the concerns I represent in this debate? Could we perhaps call this a "dropped point"? Please observe the image from [4], "NASA: How Do We Know?" Showing the PPM chart. This shows stark contrast from Con's statement that scientists have not defined what is "normal" or "optimal" when discussing the CO2 concentrations of the atmosphere. These concentrations correllate with the following temperature anomaly readings of the last 130 years [32]: The image from [32] "NASA: Global Climate Change Consensus" shows the spike in 'temperature anomaly' in the last seventeen years, versus the plateau in 'temperature' that was previously discussed. Temperature anomaly is the deviation from expected temperature, and as Con's Solar Radiation sources so helpfully pointed out, we would expect the slight cooling of the sun for the past decades to be associated with a decrease in temperature. The scientific organizations listed in image 3 regularly produce definitions of what is "normal" or "optimal" temperature. Actually, negative 18 degrees Celsius is what the temperature would be without the greenhouse effect [34], so obviously we exist in part because of greenhouse gases. While celebrating their existence as a factor of ours, we should also recognize that air content has very real potential to change air temperature. Clearly, the latest spike in CO2 readings and temperature anomalies are more than "natural," and I appreciate that Con has dropped his Appeal to Nature, but drawing parallels between religious extremism (apocolypse predictions and geocentrism) and empirical climate change is not an ideal upgrade. 32. http://climate.nasa.gov... 33. http://climate.nasa.gov... 34. http://www.columbia.edu... 35. (con) http://www.badscience.net... This is about the non-existent link between MMR and autism, and Con is hoping that it disproves the link between greenhouse gases and climate temperatures. 36. (con) http://www.businessinsider.com... This is about religious predictions being wrong, and Con is hoping that it disproves scientific theories on climate change. 37. (con) http://t.co... This concludes that increasing CO2 has disproportional and "complex effects on the growth and composition of natural plant communities," and con is hoping it will show that CO2 emissions are good for the environment. In addition to neglecting complexity, this has nothing to do with whether climate change is anthropogenic. 38. (con) http://t.co... This explains the counterbalance of the greenhouse effect by the fertilization effect, and con hopes to show that it disproves the greenhouse effect. Actually, despite the increased foliage that responds to the greenhouse effect, if anything, this article proves the greenhouse effect. 39. (con) http://t.co... This also shows that foreresty increases in response to the greenhouse effect, which is also an empirical measurement of the greenhouse effect. 40. (con) http://t.co... We are truly repeating ourselves, as this also shows that forestry increases in response to the greenhouse effect, which is an empirical measurement of greenhouse gases. 41. (con) http://t.co... "Contrary to previous opinion, the rise in temperature and the rise in the atmospheric CO2 follow each other closely in terms of time." Con posted this to support his claim that scientists are still arguing whether CO2 levels cause high temperatures, or whether high temperatures cause high CO2 levels. 42. (con) http://t.co... This shows that CO2 is not the "primary" driver of temperature, but as shown in images 2 and 3, climate theory relies on "temperature anomaly," which compares temperature predictions to actual temperatures to control for multiple variables. 43. (con) http://t.co... This is part of this research article: http://t.co... , which concludes that "antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations." Con's claims is that we're still uncertain whether temperature affects CO2 levels or whether it is the other way around. 44. (con) http://t.co... This shows that temperatures affect CO2, not the other way around, and absolutely, but is by Joannenova, a 'scientist' who never lists her accredidation and whose whose living is based off this blog. Our discussion of financial incentive and social popularity is key here, because rather than being based on peer-review, this is based off view-count and quite possibly anonymous funding. Note her motto, "hate to see a good civilization going to waste," playing on the age-old rivalry between environmental and business movements. 45. (con) http://t.co... This shows that global temperatures underwent variation before the industrial age too. Con hopes this will disprove the idea that modern changes in air content could ever affect global temperatures. 46. (con) http://en.wikipedia.org... This shows that an extreme temperature jump occured 6,000 years ago. Con hasn't really specified what he hopes this will prove. 47. (con) http://t.co... This suggests that the ozone layer on the road to recovery, which Con points to despite increasing CO2 levels. This is more evidence that he did not properly read my round 2: CO2 levels have nothing to do with ozone. 48. (con) http://t.co... Con probably meant to demonstrate that doubling the CO2 can only change temperature by 1 degree F, because that's indeed listed in this source, but it's listed as a myth. 49. (con) http://nsidc.org... Con meant to use this to demonstrate that arctic ice is normal, but this article states, "Arctic sea ice extent averaged for September 2013 was 5.35 million square kilometers (2.07 million square miles). This was 1.17 million square kilometers (452,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average extent." 50. (con) http://t.co... Con is once again insisting on using polar bear populations as our primary whether forecast. I'm talking about scientific theory, not Al-Gore's presidential platform. 51. (con) http://t.co... See explanation for [50]. 52. (con) http://t.co... "If you can't explain the pause, you can't explain the cause." It's pithy, and it's non-scientifically simple. It's another blogger's un-peer-reviewed attempt at science, see [44]. 53. (con) http://www.sciencedaily.com... See [38]-[40]. 54. (con) http://www.nature.com... See [53]. 55. (con) http://oceanworld.tamu.edu... See [54]. 56. (con) http://t.co... This shows only slight ocean warming over the course of eight years - not even a decade. 57. (con) http://t.co... This shows that energy in oceans has been increasing overtime.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Climate-denial-is-unusual-in-the-scientific-community/1/
  • PRO

    We could also find out years from now that children...

    Jail climate change deniers.

    We could also find out years from now that children aren't harmed in the production of child porn even though the evidence right now is substantial and overwhelming children are being harmed by child porn. Even though that remote possibility exists it does not mean we shouldn't jail child pornographers.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Jail-climate-change-deniers./1/

CON

  • CON

    Further, 8 of these 13 USGCRP senior scientists...

    Climate denial is unusual in the scientific community

    Mr. Merrill's opening statement shows, rightly, what I have said and shown, multiple times, in this debate: There is uncertainty. Mr. Merrill's reply here is also a Logical Fallacy: Red Herring. He is no longer dealing with facts but opinion: ignoring the heart of the discussion; what do the FACTS, or the DATA say? "What do we KNOW", not "who agrees with whom". Uncertainty: AR5 Final Draft, Chapter 9, page 5/205: "The majority of Earth System models now include an interactive representation of aerosols... uncertainties in sulphur-cycle processes and natural sources and sinks remain and so, for example, the simulated aerosol optical depth over oceans ranges from 0.08 to 0.22 with roughly equal numbers of models over- and underestimating the satellite-estimated value of 0.12." From page 27: "By contrast, there is limited evidence that the hiatus in GMST trend has been accompanied by a slower rate of increase in ocean heat content over the depth range 0"700 m, when comparing the period 2003"2010 against 1971"2010. There is low agreement on this slowdown, since three of five analyses show a slowdown in the rate of increase while the other two show the increase continuing unabated (Section 3.2.3, Figure 3.2)." Also, from Chapter 9: "During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends (Box 9.2 Figure 1a), whereas during the 15-year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends ((Box 9.2 Figure 1b; HadCRUT4 ensemble-mean trend 0.26"C per decade, CMIP5 ensemble-mean trend 0.16"C per decade)." Where are these "uncertainties" in the final report? There is ONE: SPM-10: "There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years." Then there is Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, "The fact is that we can"t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can"t." Former and current IPCC experts who have spoken out against the IPCC"s abuse of science include such prominent scientists as: Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT climate physicist and Alfred P. Sloan Professor of meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences; Dr. John Christy, a climatologist of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and NASA; Dr. Lee C. Gerhard, past director and state geologist with the Kansas Geological Society and a senior scientist emeritus of the University of Kansas; Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, former Virginia State climatologist, a UN IPCC reviewer, and University of Virginia professor of environmental sciences; Dr. Vincent Gray, New Zealand chemist and climate researcher; Dr. Tom V. Segalstad, geologist/geochemist, head of the Geological Museum in Norway; Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) senior manager and project manager for the UN Atlas of the Oceans. Not to mention, it appears a great many of scientists are "skeptical": http://goo.gl... Secondly, a good number of scientists violate Mr. Merrill's stated ideal, "Far from being alarmists"... Many scientists are involved in AGW Alarmist Activism: Of the 13 senior scientists who put together USGCRP"s January 2013 draft report, seven have ties to activist groups such as the Union of Concerned Scientists and the World Wildlife Fund. Chair Jerry Melillo is a contributing author for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Vice Chair Gary Yohe is part of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Climate Witness Program. Richard Moss is a former vice president for WWF. James Buizer is on the Board of Directors of the environmental activist group Second Nature. Susanne Moser is a former staff scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Andrew Rosenberg is a director for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Donald Weubbles is an author for the Union of Concerned Scientists. Further, 8 of these 13 USGCRP senior scientists participate in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). See also: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com... "Con presumed that because he could provide nine links..." I'll stop you there. Logical Fallacy: Straw Man. I provided several links that showed mistakes that have been made as ONE of several evidences that Climate Alarmism is wrong. "This is Con"s argument that because climate fluctuations occur naturally, they cannot result from human activity." Logical Fallacy: Straw Man. My position is, and has been, about climate alarmism. I have provided a great many links and sources that show the NATURAL variations in climate, the NATURAL responses of the earth to increased CO2 and the LACK of evidence for AGW affecting earth's climate and or being "out of the ordinary". There is no crisis. "If Con agrees with the Greenhouse Theory as he so surely claims, he cannot deny that significant increases in CO2 stand to boost global temperature." I don't have to deny it. What you have engaged in is known as the Common Cause Fallacy or False Cause: http://goo.gl... http://goo.gl... This one has the graphs: http://goo.gl... Then Mr. Merrill provides several "proofs" by listing statements from some of the organizations that have bought in to the AGW Alarmism. Lets look at the other side and what they say: A few members of organizations like the AMS have left over the AMS's stand on AGW: http://goo.gl... A poll taken on Meteorologists show them to be skeptics: http://goo.gl... And if you don't "toe the line", you have your credentials threatened: http://goo.gl... "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable." (2006) -- James Lovelock, British inventor, NASA scientist, author, and originator of the Gaia Hypothesis, He now says his predictions were "alarmist," and he criticizes his former comrades for having turned environmentalism into a "green religion." http://goo.gl... "For many years, I was an active supporter of the IPCC and its CO2 theory... Recent experience with the UN"s climate panel, however, forced me to reassess my position. In February 2010, I was invited as a reviewer for the IPCC report on renewable energy. I realised that the drafting of the report was done in anything but a scientific manner. The report was littered with errors and a member of Greenpeace edited the final version. These developments shocked me. I thought, if such things can happen in this report, then they might happen in other IPCC reports too." -- Professor Fritz Vahrenholt, author, "Die Kalte Sonne (The Cold Sun)", co-authored with noted geologist/paleontologist Dr. Sebastian L"ning. http://goo.gl... "Any reasonable scientific analysis must conclude the basic theory wrong!!" " NASA Scientist Dr. Leonard Weinstein who worked 35 years at the NASA Langley Research Center and finished his career there as a Senior Research Scientist. Weinstein is presently a Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace http://goo.gl... "Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself " Climate is beyond our power to control"Earth doesn't care about governments or their legislation. You can"t find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone"s permission or explaining itself." " Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. http://goo.gl... "Hundreds of billion dollars have been wasted with the attempt of imposing a Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory that is not supported by physical world evidences"AGW has been forcefully imposed by means of a barrage of scare stories and indoctrination that begins in the elementary school textbooks." " Brazilian Geologist Geraldo Lu"s Lino, -- "The Global Warming Fraud: How a Natural Phenomenon Was Converted into a False World Emergency." 2009. "[The science] community is relying on an inadequate model to blame CO2 and innocent citizens for global warming in order to generate funding and to gain attention. If this is what "science" has become today, I, as a scientist, am ashamed." " Research Chemist William C. Gilbert published a study in August 2010 in the journal Energy & Environment titled "The thermodynamic relationship between surface temperature and water vapor concentration in the troposphere" and he published a paper in August 2009 titled "Atmospheric Temperature Distribution in a Gravitational Field." "[The global warming establishment] has actively suppressed research results presented by researchers that do not comply with the dogma of the IPCC." " Swedish Climatologist Dr. Hans Jelbring, of the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University "There is a lack of willingness in the climate change community to steer away from groupthink" They are setting themselves up as second-rate scientists by not engaging... They will tolerate no dissent and seek to trample anyone who challenges them... The IPCC assessment process had a substantial element of schoolyard bullies, trying to insulate their shoddy science from outside scrutiny and attacks by skeptics"the IPCC and its conclusions were set on a track to become a self fulfilling prophecy." -- Dr. Judith Curry, the chair of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at GA Institute of Tech http://goo.gl... "In attributing warming to man, they fail to point out that the warming has been small, and totally consistent with there being nothing to be alarmed about." -- Richard Lindzen, Former UN IPCC Lead Author http://goo.gl... http://goo.gl... http://goo.gl... http://goo.gl... http://goo.gl...

  • CON

    However, The idea that if Bernie doesn't win your not...

    its Bernie or bust, We are suck of moderates, WE WANT REAL CHANGE

    I like Bernie, Right now it he's the most likely to win the primary and in the general election I would vote for him over Trump a hundred times over. However, The idea that if Bernie doesn't win your not gonna vote for the democratic candidate is almost as bad as just straight up voting for Trump. Any Democrat would be better that Trump on immigration, Women's issues, Race issues, Healthcare, Foreign relations, Climate change (probably the single greatest threat facing mankind and one Trump said was a "hoax made up by China"), And would at least allow us to get another democrat supreme court judge, Something that is incredibly important when it comes to the path this country will be going towards in the coming years, Especially since Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be alive for much longer. To say it's Bernie or Bust is basically just admitting your an idealogue who doesn't actually care about the actual tangible results or outcomes of policy that will effect million of American's, And that all you actually care about However, The idea that if Bernie doesn't win your not gonna vote for the democratic candidate is almost as bad as just straight up voting for Trump. Any Democrat would be better that Trump on immigration, Women's issues, Race issues, Healthcare, Foreign relations, Climate change (probably the single greatest threat facing mankind and one Trump said was a "hoax made up by China"), And would at least allow us to get another democrat supreme court judge, Something that is incredibly important when it comes to the path this country will be going towards in the coming years, Especially since Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be alive for much longer. To say it's Bernie or Bust is basically just admitting your an idealogue who doesn't actually care about the actual tangible results or outcomes of policy that will effect million of American's, And that all you actually care about Any Democrat would be better that Trump on immigration, Women's issues, Race issues, Healthcare, Foreign relations, Climate change (probably the single greatest threat facing mankind and one Trump said was a "hoax made up by China"), And would at least allow us to get another democrat supreme court judge, Something that is incredibly important when it comes to the path this country will be going towards in the coming years, Especially since Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be alive for much longer. To say it's Bernie or Bust is basically just admitting your an idealogue who doesn't actually care about the actual tangible results or outcomes of policy that will effect million of American's, And that all you actually care about is whether or not your guy gets in as if we were on sports teams.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/its-Bernie-or-bust-we-are-suck-of-moderates-WE-WANT-REAL-CHANGE/1/
  • CON

    Just because I don't refute a given point does not mean...

    Man-Made Global Warming Isn't Real

    I'm not sure what the correct practice is regarding Pro placing nearly half of his R2 argument in the comments. This is the same debater who once copy and pasted arguments from another debate into one against me, so I am inclined to think this is considered bad form. Given that he/she is the one who proposed the character limit and never stated there would be exceptions made, I would urge voters to largely disqualify those portions from consideration. That all said, I will still try to address as much of their argument as possible. You will see that nearly all, if not all, of Pro's counterclaims are completely fabricated, baseless, and not rooted in any reputable sources (or any sources at all, for that matter). First and foremost, in the main part of Pro's argument, he/she does not list one single source despite making very bold claims in attempts to refute my scientific evidence. In the comments, they state that their source is "freaking TESLA. They f*cking make electric cars!!! And they say global warming isn't real!!!" Surely showing that this is in fact not the case should be sufficient in refuting Pro's statements, though I will go a bit further. All of Pro's arguments are directly copied and pasted from a Tesla forum and in no way are endorsed by the company itself. You can view that forum entry contributed by a group known as "Free Energy" here: https://goo.gl.... I will use actual, scientific facts and scholarly sources to show that Pro's counterclaims are not just unfounded but patently false. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, has said, "Climate change is the biggest threat that humanity faces this century," in an interview with Rolling Stone. "In the past, Musk himself has called the act of denying climate change “fraud,” and has told people, albeit jokingly, to use a thermometer if they’re unsure of the existence of global warming. Musk has never shied away from acting against the dangers that threaten the future of humanity and planet Earth." (https://goo.gl...). "Musk’s point is clear, however: climate change is real." (https://goo.gl...). Also to this point, "Tesla makes sought-after electric cars and the potential for the company to replicate this success in the heavy-duty sector is an exciting prospect for clean air and climate change." (https://goo.gl...). Further showing that Pro's claim about Tesla's stance is completely invalid and unfounded: "Electric trucks, whether manufactured by Tesla or anyone else, are essential to solving climate change and reducing air pollution. On California’s grid today, a heavy-duty electric vehicle with middle-of-the-road efficiency has 70 percent lower life cycle global warming emissions than a comparable diesel and natural gas vehicle. Electric vehicles also don’t have any tailpipe emissions of NOx, particulate matter, or other pollutants." (https://goo.gl...) This shows, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that Pro has completely fabricated his/her claims and attributed them to a single car company whose goal is actually to combat the very phenomenon Pro is claiming to not exist. By itself, this fact should result in a nearly-automatic disqualification and I could rest my case here. However, I will go on to refute just a few of Pro's outrageously outlandish and fabricated counterpoints. Just because I don't refute a given point does not mean that it would not be possible to do so, however, out of respect for voters and the integrity of this forum, I will adhere to the character limit set by Pro. "The 0.7 - 0.9"C increase in the average global temperature over the last hundred years is entirely consistent with well-established, long-term, natural climate trends." Official NASA data shows that average annual temperature dropped every year between 1880 and 1920. Seventeen of the 18 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998. (NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)). I do not know where Pro's claim came from, but it is clearly false. "It is myth that receding glaciers are proof of global warming as glaciers have been receding and growing cyclically for many centuries." Scientists are also finding that glaciers reveal clues about global warming. How much does our atmosphere naturally warm up between Ice Ages? How does human activity affect climate? Because glaciers are so sensitive to temperature fluctuations accompanying climate change, direct glacier observation may help answer these questions. Since the early twentieth century, with few exceptions, glaciers around the world have been retreating at unprecedented rates. Some scientists attribute this massive glacial retreat to the Industrial Revolution, which began around 1760. In fact, several ice caps, glaciers and ice shelves have disappeared altogether in this century. Many more are retreating so rapidly that they may vanish within a matter of decades. (National Snow and Ice Data Center). There is also the article, "Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Glaciers Melting" found here: https://goo.gl..., I do not know where Pro's claim came from (certainly not Tesla), but it is also unfounded and false. "It is a falsehood that the earth"s poles are warming because that is natural variation and while the western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer we also see that the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder." A study published on April 6 in the journal Science found that bottom-up ice loss is also happening, particularly in the eastern Arctic Ocean where the Atlantic Ocean is making inroads. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I must (again) say that this claim is baseless and false. I should also note that Pro simply pasted this line again two points later. "Warmer periods of the Earth"s history came around 800 years before rises in CO2 levels." There is an article titled, "The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist". It says, among other things, that carbon dioxide is the most important long-lived global warming gas, and once it is emitted by burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil, a single CO2 molecule can remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 35.6 billion tonnes in 2012, up 2.6 percent from 2011. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases warm the planet by absorbing the sun’s energy and preventing heat from escaping back into space. "After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940." Global temperatures rose in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, and 1945 (https://climate.nasa.gov...). I have no idea where this claim comes from. "There is "no real scientific proof" that the current warming is caused by the rise of greenhouse gases from man"s activity." - "There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response." (NASA) - "Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels." (NASA) - "The amount the temperatures will increase if CO2 is doubled from pre-industrial levels...CO2 and other greenhouse gases keep the Earth’s surface 33°Celsius (59.4°F) warmer than it would be without them...Sure enough, we can see that CO2 is adding considerable warming, along with ozone (O3) and methane (CH4). This is called surface radiative forcing, and the measurements are part of the empirical evidence that CO2 is causing the warming." (https://goo.gl...) - "There is empirical evidence that the rising temperatures are being caused by the increased CO2." (https://goo.gl...) "A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years." - "During these last 30 years the solar total irradiance, solar UV irradiance and cosmic ray flux has not shown any significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another source." (https://goo.gl...) - A number of independent measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has shown a slight cooling trend since 1960, over the same period that global temperatures have been warming. Over the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions. An analysis of solar trends concluded that the sun has actually contributed a slight cooling influence in recent decades (Lockwood 2008). "Leaked e-mails from British climate scientists - in a scandal known as "Climate-gate" - suggest that that has been manipulated to exaggerate global warming" "It is hard for anyone except the most committed conspiracy theorist to see much of interest in the content of the released e-mails, even taken out of context" ("A poor sequel". Nature. 480 (7375): 6. December 2011) "A petition by scientists trying to tell the world that the political and media portrayal of global warming is false was put forward in the Heidelberg Appeal in 1992." Ignoring, for a second, the fact that the contents of this report were and are highly contested, they were released 26 years ago. Since then, great advancements have been made in all sorts of technological fields dealing with global warming. Those more modern sources are the ones I cite. A majority of these counterclaims by Pro are repeated numerous times in response to various arguments of mine, many times in ways that don't apply. Regardless of relevance, these counterclaims are all copied and pasted from a biased source that Pro claims to be Tesla, when in fact it's simply from a forum on Tesla's website. This is not just misleading, but blatantly in disregard for the integrity of the forum. I urge voters to note that not only did Pro misattribute a source to a company whose view is actually the diametric opposite of what he/she claims, but I've provided scientific evidence refuting the claims made by the actual source.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Man-Made-Global-Warming-Isnt-Real/1/
  • CON

    The countries where zero, slow, or NO growth are rich,...

    Population control MUST be part of climate change/sustainable policies

    I apoligize for the varying (and abnormally large)sizes of graphs and charts ahead of time. Figure 1. The first graph depicts the population of Earth over time. s://lh6.googleusercontent.com...; alt="" width="624px;" height="396px;" /> As we can see in the graph, the world is not on the path of out of control population growth, in fact, population growth has been on the decline. Notice how this occured without any major population control methods. Figure 2. This chart depicts fertility rates in certain countries. s://lh3.googleusercontent.com...; alt="" width="575px;" height="317px;" /> Why is this graph significant? It depicts the countries that are experiencing population growth. The countries where zero, slow, or NO growth are rich, "developed", states such as the US and Germany. The countries with high fertility rates are countries where poverty is rampant and birth control/women's rights are almost non-existent.Thus,larger population growth rates in the Third World are a consequence of dire poverty and restrictions on women’s ability to control their own fertility The latest UN population report released on March 12 predicts population will exceed 9 billion people by mid-century. Almost all of this growth will occur in the global South. The 49 poorest countries in the world will have by far the biggest increases. In the richest countries, however, population will decline from 1.23 billion to 1.15 billion if projected net migration is left aside. (It will increase to only 1.28 billion including net migration). Raising living standards globally, improving health care, providing access to education and achieving greater equality for women, creates a stable population growth, without the artificial constraints of population control. Unfortunately, you address the issue of climate change in your argument, without considering the implications of population control. An article by Simon Butler summarizes it perfectly: “In practice, there has never been a population control scheme that has met with acceptable environmental or humanitarian outcomes. Columbia University professor Matthew Connelly has thoroughly documented this disturbing history in his 2008 book Fatal Misconception.[9] China’s one child policy has been hailed as an environmental measure by prominent population theorists such as Britain’s Jonathan Poritt.[10] But he and others ignore that China’s population control has hardly solved that country’s growing environmental problems. The human costs of the policy, however, are shocking. Until 2002 Chinese women were denied any choice of contraceptive method – 37% of married women have been forcibly sterilized.[11] Female infanticide has reached epidemic proportions” How can you guarantee the rights of others are not infringed in this process? Who “controls” birth? The government? And who will be in place to decide how to even control population? Many are against birth control, and obviously murder. I await your response.

  • CON

    So I must conclude that PRO merely misinterprets the only...

    Anthropogenic Global Warming Is Real

    == ERRATA== CR4) NASA actually acknowledges solar cycle being responsible for past warming [12] … - it meant to point at source [13], I am sorry for typo. ==NOTE== As presented relevant sources to describe climate phenomena in my previous posts, its is now time to summarize data and claims presented by both me and my opponent. Like before, I will cite previous sources with numbering used in previous rounds and any new sources will start wit number 17. ==MAIN ARGUMENTS SUMMARY == SUM1) CO2 GH GAS SIGNIFICANCE There is no controversy between PRO and CON about CO2 being a greenhouse gas, but its significance towards AGW is being disputed. CON cited sources explaining why CO2 is not being significant and that under very generous assumptions (eg. CO2 is as strong GH gas as H2O, CO2 caused all warming between 1900 to 2000 [NOAA being cited as source of data] ) [16] show that if we doubled CO2 concentration, the upper limit of temperature increase is 1.39 �C. This includes all positive and negative feedbacks since the hyperbola is a best fit of empirical data provided by NOAA (data that my opponent defends). This rules out any kind of "Hockey stick" graph caused by CO2. Lots of Mann's assumptions are refuted in [16] too, notably that CO2 is responsible for 26% of total GH forcing, which is roughly around 5% as is supported by numerous sources cited by CON and explanation in [16]. PRO fails to provide reliable quantitative estimation of CO2 GH forcing that would refute my sources aside of correlation of temperature rise and industrialization. But that notion is supported only by hypothesis that natural phenomena couldn't cause that which brings us to next point... SUM2) NATURAL PHENOMENA AND RECENT WARMING Both PRO and CON agree natural phenomena caused cyclic climate change in the past. Question being discussed is whether this could significantly influence climate change since start of industrial age. Figures I cited in CR2 covers correlation of several natural phenomena with increase of global temperature from 1800 to 2000 and it is important to note, that increase in CO2 output do not correlate with temperature increase nor with glacier shortening ratio. It also shows perfect correlation between sun activity and arctic air temperature. PRO try to deny this fact claiming that solar activity was constant for recent century. He supported his very strong claim by single source in CA4 (the second is just temperature data) which contains NO such a claim! After being ask to show how his source supports his claim, he merely re-posted a link without quotation and blamed me for repeating myself (sic!), not addressing the matter (sic!) saying I have been refuted (sic!). I have read my opponent's re-posted source two times very carefully and found no explicit nor implicit information supporting PRO's claim! So I must conclude that PRO merely misinterprets the only figure there in very alarming way. On this basis he wants refute serious scientific papers!!! Since this problem is central to whole debate I will provide even more sources. Namely [17]: "Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55�C surface warming since 1900 and one-third of the warming since 1970", [18] say: " ...annual solar irradiance variability accounts for 74% of North Hemisphere temperature anomalies from 1610 to 1800 and for 56% of variance from 1800 to present." and [19] say: "In discordance with the greenhouse effect, we believe that sunspots are the major contributor to short term climate change associated with global warming." and "Solar research quickly led to the discovery of sunspot data, which was strikingly convincing. Not only did it match historical climate data, but also coincided with human advancements/achievements throughout history. For instance, Columbus' explorations occurred when aurora numbers were high, indicating sunspot occurrence, and ultimately warmer weather. Other historical events such as the Renaissance and the Viking colonization showed close relationship with climate change, as a result of sunspots. Finally, the Irish Famine of the 1800's occurred when no auroras were present, causing colder weather and the failure of crops. In addition, sunspots have proven to have a drastic effect on the climate of Earth through the heating of our atmosphere. Sunspots are known to contribute to the formation of volcanoes, which in turn determines the composition of our atmosphere, and ultimately our climate. From this data, we can confidently state that the solar cycle of sunspots closely relates to historical climate change throughout history." Note that [17] and [18] do only deal with irradiance and Svensmark hypothesis [12] is not accounted for. Also see that my source [3] cites original scientific papers of both "sides" of debate and reviews whole scientific debate, so everyone can check it. ==COMMENTS TO MINOR ARGUMENTS== C1) "Hockey stick" graph is defended by PRO on bases of computer models of few scientists and denial of MWP. He thinks that it beats "more than 200 peer-reviewed research papers produced by more than 660 individual scientists working in 385 separate institutions from 40 different countries that comment on the MWP" [3] page 69. C2) PRO says he rebutted my claim of UHI temperature bias in CA3 and merely re-post his source again. So lets examine the source that was posted in 2006. The author (if you click at his name) describes himself as: "Former musician, turned tree planter, turned software engineer." and source where he points at NASA GISS analysis show only that some steps were taken to deal with it. The author however cannot evaluate whether the adjustments were sufficient. My source is study released in 2009 that takes NASA adjustments up to that time into account and finds that adjustments are inadequate. Therefore it was PRO's source that was rebutted, not mine. C3) In CA5 PRO claims it doesn't matter IPCC was wrong. But how can he blame CO2 on basis of models that are wrong about how CO2 warms atmosphere? C4) POSITIVE VERSUS NEGATIVE WATER FEEDBACK This area is to a large extent unknown. Many papers are being released recently discovering both positive and negative feedbacks. Some of recent papers finds strong positive feedback of water vapor like [20], which is being criticized by [21], some finds prevalent negative feedback [22]: "Water vapor feedback in climate models is positive mainly because of their roughly constant relative humidity (i.e., increasing q) in the mid-to-upper troposphere as the planet warms. Negative trends in q as found in the NCEP data would imply that long-term water vapor feedback is negative—that it would reduce rather than amplify the response of the climate system to external forcing". Note these feedbacks are related to temperature, not CO2 so PRO must defend his hypothesis that CO2 significantly causes temperature increase to even start this argument. C5) Carbon sinks Ocean takes less CO2 because temperature increase (solubility), not because its full. If CO2 pressure rise solubility rise. If CO2 doubles plants grow much faster (= photosyntetize more CO2). See the sources I cited because I am out of space. ==NOTE== PRO's lack of attention to sources is alarming as we see and he blames me for his own misconduct. ==SOURCES== [17] J Lean 1998: http://journals.ametsoc.org...(1998)011%3C3069%3ACFBCSR%3E2.0.CO%3B2 [18] J Lean 1995: http://www.geo.umass.edu... [19] Orbital Forcing: http://www.orbitalforcing.com... [20] Dessler 2008: http://www.agu.org... [21] Spencer 2009: http://www.drroyspencer.com... [22] Paltrige 2008: http://www.springerlink.com...

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Anthropogenic-Global-Warming-Is-Real/2/
  • CON

    would be posted on the Internet, open to the public (else...

    Governments should require that funded climate data be posted

    Pro states that I have not addressed his three points but, instead, introduced two negative contentions. But, according to Pro, "The full resolution is: 'In all countries, governments should impose a condition on climate research grants and aid related to climate research that source data collected or analyzed under the grant, and all software developed under the government support shall be posted on the Internet within one month of publication or announcement of the results by any means.'...the full resolution is the one to debate." By refuting the negative results that most likely would result were the resolution be adopted, I have refuted the entire premise of the resolution and have thus responded to the debate challenge. To argue the results of what has NOT been done in no way validates Pros predictions of what would result if the resolution were adopted. Therefore I have properly addressed the resolution with complete and correct arguments against the resolution. Perhaps I am misreading the resolution but what I see is that once a finding is published or "announced by any means," within 1 month the source (I read this as "Raw") data that was collected or analyzed (wouldn't analyzed data also have to have been collected?) would be posted on the Internet, open to the public (else how would the "public" know what it is they are getting for their money?) apparently unabridged. To assume this would eliminate (or even curtail) errors and/or ambiguous data or skewed results is pure conjecture and unsupported. Would that this data and the software used were made available to all bona fide investigators, meaning scientists, researchers and technicians employed by or actively engaged in climate-change research for peer review and co-operative research, with Penalties for releasing information prior to peer review and consensus under the umbrella of National Security (since, indeed, the security of the nation is at stake based upon the path we take in response to the question of global climate change) then I believe a better understanding would be possible than placing the future of our country in the hands of the pundits who, admittedly (or not) have their own agendas. If all communications between parties engaged in climate-change research were to be made public, free and uninhibited discourse between these parties would be severely curtailed. Although it is impossible to secure e-mail 100%, it should still be considered as private or even as protected as "snail mail" or the verbal conversation of which it is replacing and not subject to public scrutiny. No one doubts that every instance of computer software is without possible flaws, or glitches, but to recreate identical results from identical data requires more than just a copy of the software. One has to duplicate perfectly the entry of that data and the parameters surrounding the software within the specific computer as well as being equally conversant in the operation of the software as its creator. This is especially true of software that is targeted toward a specific problem (analyzing and modeling climate change data within certain parameters) rather than "vanilla" software (such as a word processor or graphics generator) that will eventually be used in many divergent applications by many users. Most software designers, as well as most scientists, I understand, are a proud group, who feel insulted by uninformed criticism upon their work by pundits who are not conversant in the field in which their attacks are directed. To expose this work or product to public scrutiny, rather than limiting it to peer review, is to place unjustified pressure on these professionals to limit their research to "non-controversial" areas or to withhold crucial data to avoid unwarranted attack or even to "fudge" data to assuage the critics. There is no argument against the public having a right to the PRODUCTS of work paid for by taxpayers. But to insist upon public disclosure of every keystroke and instance of data falling outside of the standard deviation model is to invite equally public defamation of the publishing party as well as "ammunition" by those whose agenda is to disrupt and discredit the entire field of study by any means at their disposal. Again, I aver, there is a direct correlation between public perception of an issue and the amount of money approved to research that issue. While the Congress controls the purse strings, it is the constituency who ultimately control the congress. This, of course, includes that portion of the constituency who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, regardless of the long-term effects.

  • CON

    Net/assets/peak-emissions/ If you don't want to accept...

    "Fixing the Climate" should be a Low Priority for the USA

    I didn't rescind the hypothetical. I said there was no specific study to say yet, And commented that such a study with extremely specific numbers is probably not possible. Also, That it is only considering money and not morality, Or even human QoL. Everyone in the science community talks about "A 2C Peak to global temperatures" or "A 4C peak to global temperatures. " I can give you sources for the global temperature cycle, The natural climate change that happens over time to show you there are peaks and valleys if you want. The peak may not every stop if we don't address our effects on the climate. By pumping greenhouses gasses into the atmosphere we are terraforming our planet. I can give you arguments for why pumping large amounts of essentially poison into our atmosphere is also bad for human health. Here's a source that shows you people talking about trying to keep a 2C peak, And how our emissions have to change to achieve that peak. eciu. Net/assets/peak-emissions/ If you don't want to accept that then I can't force you to, But this is what the scientists speak of. The fact is if we keep it at a LOW priority and we don't address it head on, The graph above shows 2C peak will probably be unavoidable after 2040, And if the peak doesn't happen before 2025 we will have to get negative emissions to prevent going over 2C. Most people consider this fairly impossible, But not addressing it would lead us to a 4C world. Perhaps higher. Now, If your claim is that we're all doomed anyway, I guess the US could keep it a low priority. We COULD just accept that the climate is changing, Lay down and die, But your arguments as to why we SHOULD just die fall flat. 2. We set a goal to get to the moon. We didn't KNOW we could. Research was done at a high priority for no better reason than a childish spat with Russia. If we can't get above a low priority for the terraforming of our planet as far as research goes, I can't give you a better justification. What's more critical, Spats with other countries or the instability of our climate? All the scientists are suggesting many ways to pull gasses out of the atmosphere. You're asking us to trust your diagnoses that the probability is LOW but you are no authority in this matter. Even if it IS low, It should be a high priority to avoid a 4C or worse world. You have no argument to oppose this, And you have no argument to oppose the fact that increased research funding would more likely lead to a solution, Or a mitigation, Particularly when so many SCIENTISTS disagree with you. I've linked the Harvard mitigation solution already, What more do you want? It currently seems that unless I'm able to tell you precise numbers for the catastrophe and give you a 100% pure solution prior to research being conducted then your position is that we should all lie down and accept an infinitely warming climate and that it is no big deal. If you call this a LOW priority what are your high or med priorities? -Thoht

  • CON

    We won't have to wait for your grandchildren to see the...

    Humans- The real threat to life on Earth

    We won't have to wait for your grandchildren to see the Earth self destruct. If we have leadership(humans) denying the danger of climate change, The Earth will self destruct very soon.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Humans-The-real-threat-to-life-on-Earth/1/
  • CON

    I have made many edits in Wikipedia and after about 7...

    Reserved for FollowerofChrist: Climate change is real and a massive threat to humanity.

    I just posted some information which gave you an opportunity to react to, rather than just letting you waffle on about subjects that I am not interested in or concerned about. Regardless, if you didn't post an argument in the first round that is your fault and not mine. You just wasted a valuable round, that's all. 2. My opponent keeps using Wikipedia references and seems to think that these are highly reputable and contain infallible information which can't be disputed or challenged. This is nonsense and a contradiction of his own authority fallacy theory. The Wikipedia website is just a collection of articles which could have been written by any random person. Its the editing that is the problem. I have made many edits in Wikipedia and after about 7 days my edits disappear and the original text comes back again. Thus, the site is managed by a bunch of conservative bureaucrats that hate new ideas or changes to old theories. Thus, if you are looking for exciting new ideas and scientific breakthroughs, then, you won't find any in Wikipedia. 3. People who are innocent don't run and hide in far off distant countries like China where they will be protected by the corrupted communist system. 4. My opponent has not refuted any of my arguments. I have shown that my opponent has supplied false and misleading information. I have shown that the concept of global warming is a fallacy. I have shown that Maurice Strong was a criminal. I have shown that the oceans are not rising. I have shown that CO2 doesn't cause temperature increases. I have shown how the IPCC deceives the public. Vote 1 Akhey !!!!!!!

  • CON

    You can debate whether that's actually a good idea, just...

    CMV: The Green New Deal distracts from climate change, by tying climate change to left-leaning policy/rhetoric. The bill seems designed to raise republican opposition, and is a disappointment/insulting for people who believe that climate change is the #1 issue of our lifetime.

    First off, I sort of reject a lot of your premises involving bipartisanship. I don't think there are enough republicans serious about trying to be bipartisan to actually pass any meaningful climate change bills with 60+ votes. If dems try to be bipartisan, it's primarily a stalling tactic by the GOP to ensure that nothing gets done for long enough that they can run on the "look how ineffective the democrats are". Related to this, bipartisanship is *not* the only way to get things done. They can also try to get rid of the filibuster. You can debate whether that's actually a good idea, just like we can debate whether bipartisanship is actually a good idea, but it is a path forward. That said, even to get 50 votes, you still need moderate Democrats like Manchin who are almost certainly unlikely to be interested in the green new deal. So in a sort of roundabout way, I agree with you that it's not realistic right now, although I disagree with your exact reasoning. But I do disagree that that necessarily makes it a "distraction". On this point, I think you have to disentangle two things. There's the green new deal itself, which So in a sort of roundabout way, I agree with you that it's not realistic right now, although I disagree with your exact reasoning. But I do disagree that that necessarily makes it a "distraction". On this point, I think you have to disentangle two things. There's the green new deal itself, which is notably not an actual bill that's currently under consideration to become law, and is more a set of goals. What can actually pass should be a practical consideration when actually legislating, but it's silly to try and argue that people shouldn't even clearly state *what they actually want*. Anything that actually passes will surely be a compromise, bit you don't help your cause in a negotiation by dumbing down your opening offer to try and avoid having to negotiate entirely. You start with what you want and work from there. Now, you could make a strong case that there are democratic figures that treat the green new deal as an all-or-nothing no compromise purity test and use it to attack other Democrats in ways that are pretty unproductive. But that's a critique of those Democrats, not the green new deal itself, which is a pretty accurate platform of what a lot of people on the left genuinely want.