• PRO

    The ozone hole is just an area of the upper atmosphere...

    Climate Change is real and caused by humans and can/should be stopped!

    I hope you are joking, "I have seen many a great things, inspirational things, miracles even, BUT never have I seen evidence of an Ozone layer." The ozone layer is not a literal sheet/dome of ozone covering the entire planet it is just huge quantities of Ozone (O3) in the upper atmosphere. The ozone holes are more of areas with less ozone, much less, so much less in fact that it does seem to be a whole in the ozone protection from UV and ionizing rays! We are able to get a hole as ozone is near the top of the atmosphere, not much is above it, and of course sinks down into that hole, therefore you are right it's not a vacume in the atmosphere, its a hole, a void without ozone. Ozone is what protects the planet for a most part from harmful rays such as UV and ionising rays (Gamma and x-rays)! With the hole missing, half of the green house effect is put into place. These rays aren't just cancerous and dangerous in other ways to use, but they also heat up the surface of the planet, which normally if fine, NORMALLY when heat enters it just leaves, but green house gasses such as methane and carbon dioxide (which in small amounts are fine and needed, but we are pumping much more) block this extra heat/energy from the Sun from escaping back out into space! The ozone layer again as you seemed to not understand, is a layer of ozone (not only ozone) in the upper atmosphere, this ozone is in addition to what makes up the atmosphere, and this ozone usually stays in the upper atmosphere (on the rare occasian or it drops into the lower atmosphere or is created here, he get sick has it is poisonous to breath) along with the other ingredients in our atmosphere, helium, carbon dioxide, air, nitrogen..... The ozone hole is just an area of the upper atmosphere lacking ozone, which again is what protects the planet from much of the electromagnetic spectrum (light, including gamma and x-rays, UV and Infrared rays, Microwave and Radio waves). You said you have never "seen" this part of climate change, of course you don't do you see trees taking in CO2 and putting out Oxygen, NO, so it "must" not be true. The almighty, non-scientist nobody doesn't beleive it to be true, we must just take his word for it! The ozone hole is over the southern pole, so if you were in Antarctica right now you would likely feel the rays, as in you would get sun burns and a tan (yes even in the arctic as long as there is sun and rays, you would also likely get skin cancer after a couple years of exposure, why don't you test your theory out that it doesn't exist, maybe you can prove skin cancer to be a myth made by those evil athiests too). You asked how do we know that the climate is changing at a un-natural rate, good question, this held us back from acting on climate change for a long while, until we figured out the answer. We know that the planet's temerature has changed over thousands and millions of years, ice ages are proof of this (we know those happened due to glacier fossils which cover the earth meaning that the temp would of had to be much lower), and there have been times in history where we beleive it was so hot that the poles melted completely, but all of these events happened over hundreds of thousands if not millions of years (ice ages being the exeption, they happened over a number of thousands of years). We know that the Earth's temperature hasn't been changing in the past due to the effects that climate change has on weather, el nino (a storm caused by disrutption of wind currents, caused by climate change) has only came to exist in the last 20 years and is definetly caused by climate change. You do not understand that this is a debate on climate change and not evoultion. Also you talked about extintion, extintion does not prove evolution false, animals die when things like you said happen, but when effects take place over long periods of time such as a forest eroding into a savanna or desert, the best of the species living there will survive and pass on their traits over and over again the best wills survive passing on the best traits to survive their changing habitat, if they don't change fast enough they die, like you said, but often they aren't faced with such imiediet threats! An example of evolution is tictalic, the ancestor of all land vertebrates. The tictalic species evolved slowly overtime, fins that were able to push themselves up out of the water, this happened as the members of the species with the strongest fins would pass on there genes and the ones with weaker fins would die out. These fins over thousands of years would get so strong they could act as primitive arms that drag tictalic onto land to escape predators. The air bladder of the fish evolved to act as a single lung and this way, over time through many mutations that helped the species survive, they evolved legs, then they got bigger, spread out across the planet, and the species we have today evolved. WHAT THE F*CK IS WRONG WITH YOU DONT PUT SO MUCH FAITH IN YOUR LORD WHICH HAS NOT BEEN PROVEN YET THE ONLY PROOF THERE IS FOR A GOD IS THAT SOME THINGS CANT BE EXPLAINED WITH OUR CURRENT TECHNOLOGY, DONT EXPECT SOMEONE TO SAVE THE PLANET (GOD) ONCE YOU SCREW IT UP BY EXPECTING IT TO BE SAVED, WITH THE IDEA THAT SPECIES WILL CARE FOR THEMSELVES, OUR ENTIRE PLANETS ECOSYSTEM WILL COLAPSE AND GOD WONT BE THERE TO SAVE IT, IF HE IS REAL HE WOULD NOT HELP SOMEONE WHO ISNT HELPING THEMSELVES HE IS NOT YOUR MOTHER!

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Climate-Change-is-real-and-caused-by-humans-and-can-should-be-stopped/1/
  • PRO

    If you want me to have burden of proof sure, 51% for me...

    Donald Trump thinks climate change is a hoax.

    Thank you for accepting the debate. If you want me to have burden of proof sure, 51% for me versus 49% for you burden of proof. In your own link there If you want me to have burden of proof sure, 51% for me versus 49% for you burden of proof. In your own link there is further proof that Donald Trump is not a believer in climate change and thus thinks its a hoax. "Trump, who is now the GOP"s presumptive nominee, has said he"s "not a big believer" in man-made climate change, and has vowed to eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency if elected president. " [2] Vowing to eliminate the EPA? Come on this proves that Donald Trump believe climate change is a hoax. 2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com...

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Donald-Trump-thinks-climate-change-is-a-hoax./1/
  • PRO

    Common definitions are assumed, unless otherwise stated...

    Anthropogenic global climate change.

    I will contend that anthropegenic global climate change exists. The contender will contend that anthropegenic global climate change is non-existent. Structure R1 Acceptance & definitions R2 Arguments R3 Rebuttals R4 Defense Burden of proof Burden of proof will be shared equally. This is because I am making the affrimative claim and the instiagator, yet am arguing for what is normally accepted in the scientific community. Therefore, the burdens of proof cancel each other out resulting in neutral 50/50 burden of proof. Further explanation of r1 setup. First round is just for acceptance and definitions if need be. Common definitions are assumed, unless otherwise stated and agreed upon. Anthropogenic " Caused by humans" [1] Round two each person will make their argument, but no direct responses to the other person's argument. Focus on making a convincing argument that if not for your opponent's rebuttal would sell your audience. This is the only round to make new arguments for your case. Round three each person will respond directly to their opponent's round two argument pointing out any logical fallacies and attempt to find flaws. Round four each person defends their round two argument against their opponent's round three argument. For example if I say that is a cherry picking fallacy as a rebuttal in round three against my opponent round two argument, my opponent would explain in round four as a defense why me calling their argument a cherry picking fallacy is incorrect. Thank you in advance for accepting the debate. Previous debate for reference. [0] Try to stick to the structure please, makes it much easier for voters to follow the debate. Sources. 0. http://www.debate.org... 1. http://www.thefreedictionary.com...

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Anthropogenic-global-climate-change./2/
  • PRO

    First round is just for acceptance and definitions if...

    Anthropogenic climate change.

    I will contend that anthropegenic climate change exists. The contender will contend that anthropegenic climate change is non-existent. Structure R1 Acceptance & definitions R2 Arguments R3 Rebuttals R4 Defense Burden of proof Burden of proof will be shared equally. This is because I am making the affrimative claim and the instiagator, yet am arguing for what is normally accepted in the scientific community. Therefore, the burdens of proof cancel each other out resulting in neutral 50/50 burden of proof. Further explanation of r1 setup. First round is just for acceptance and definitions if need be. Common definitions are assumed, unless otherwise stated and agreed upon. Round two each person will make their argument, but no direct responses to the other person' argument. Focus on making a convincing argument that if not for your opponent's rebuttal would sell your audience. This is the only round to make new arguments for your case. Round three each person will respond directly to their opponent's round two argument pointing out any logical fallacies and attempt to find flaws. Round four each person defends their round argument against their opponent's round three argument. For example if I say that Common definitions are assumed, unless otherwise stated and agreed upon. Round two each person will make their argument, but no direct responses to the other person' argument. Focus on making a convincing argument that if not for your opponent's rebuttal would sell your audience. This is the only round to make new arguments for your case. Round three each person will respond directly to their opponent's round two argument pointing out any logical fallacies and attempt to find flaws. Round four each person defends their round argument against their opponent's round three argument. For example if I say that is a cherry picking fallacy in round two, my opponent would explain why me calling their argument a cherry picking fallacy is incorrect. Thank you in advance for accepting the debate.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Anthropogenic-climate-change./3/
  • PRO

    Climate change is no longer a distant threat but a real...

    Climate Change Is Already Here, Says Massive Government Report

    Climate change is no longer a distant threat but a real and present danger in the United States according to a government report issued Tuesday.

    • https://www.allsides.com/story/white-house-climate-change-report
  • CON

    That refutes Pro's contention that because Venus is hot,...

    Climate change

    We have an unresolved disagreement about what contribution of CO2 to climate is "significant." CO2 theory advocates generally attribute all of climate change to CO2. They argue that there is no significant solar activity of any kind, that arctic ice could not have melted due to the Pacific Oscillation by which it has melted regularly in past times, and that hurricanes that used to run in cycles no longer do so. So for debate purposes, I'd say that if half of global warming were due to CO2, that would be significant. Pro suggested in round 2 that "significant" ought to be judged as enough to make enacting cap and trade worthwhile. By that standard, then if all of global warming is due to to CO2, it still wouldn't be significant. That's because Europe enacted cap and trade some time ago, and CO2 was not reduced at all as a consequence. The Holocene Optimum (3000-5000 years ago) was warmer than CO2 theorists claim it will get, and that was one of the most prosperous periods of human history. The polar bears survived as well. If Pro understood that no scientist opposed to CO2 theory maintained that global warming did not exist, then why did he put it as the first contention of his debate argument? Whether Pro believed the error of fact or not, it appears in Pro's argument, and is therefore relevant to the debate. Having the contention implies that those who deny the theory is completely out of touch with reality. Therefore is was relevant to refute the implication. I did the analysis of CO2 effects on Venus correctly. I acknowledged that 380 ppm (I should have said 368 ppm, which is more accurate.) of CO2 leads to our present temperature. I claimed that the sensitivity to CO2 above 380 would be small. Pro claimed that the sensitivity above present levels was high, and that Venus showed that sensitivity. To disprove Pro's assertion, I started with the assumption of what temperatures would be if both Earth and Venus had 380 ppm of CO2, compensating for Venus being closer to the Sun. The rise above that baseline that is actually observed is about 150 degrees and it is due to adding (960,000 - 380) ppm of CO2. That's 0.05 degree per extra 380 ppm. That refutes Pro's contention that because Venus is hot, it shows that temperature is sensitive to CO2. Note that the main greenhouse gas on earth is not CO2, it is water vapor. That allows CO2 proponents to tweak the computer models so that when CO2 fails to explain warming, an induced multiplier effect from water vapor is claimed. Pro responds by producing an unlabeled graph from an unknown source that shows that while overall there is low sensitivity to CO2, that early may be in a portion of the curve where there is still some sensitivity. The x-axis of the graph appear to be logarithmic, but it isn't stated, so we don't know for sure where the 380 point should be plotted. There is no clue as to whether the y-axis (temperature) is linear or logarithmic, so even if we knew the 380 point, we couldn't read of the temperature increase claimed for going to 760 ppm. What Pro's graph concedes is that CO2 effects are extremely non-linear. What Pro seems to disputes is the exact shape of the curve or where we are on the curve. The non-linearity of the CO2 response is calculated from physical principles by T.J. Nelson http://brneurosci.org... "What saturation tells us is that exponentially higher levels of CO2 would be needed to produce a linear increase in absorption, and hence temperature. This is basic physics.... doubling carbon dioxide would not double the amount of global warming. In fact, the effect of carbon dioxide is roughly logarithmic. Each time carbon dioxide (or some other greenhouse gas) is doubled, the increase in temperature is the same as the previous increase." Nelson continues by fitting the CO2 data from the 20th century to the known temperature rise. "This shows that doubling CO2 over its current values should increase the earth's temperature by about 1.85 degrees C. Doubling it again would raise the temperature another 1.85 degrees C. Since these numbers are based on actual measurements, not models, they include the effects of amplification, if we make the reasonable assumption that the same amplification mechanisms that occurred previously will also occur in a world that is two degrees warmer." Pro gives references, but they are a mess of blog-like conclusions from non-scientists and biased Wikipedia articles. Moreover, Pro frequently fails to claim what it is in the article that he claims to be supporting his claim. Other times I cannot find and match at all. His [12] is supposed to support a claim about Mercury, but I cannot find any reference to Mercury. He cited an article claiming to temperature for the last decade that showed no such data. Pro should reference articles written by credible scientists and quote or say what it is that supports his point. The second graph in http://wattsupwiththat.com... compares actual temperature with climate model prediction. Temperature have been level for the past decade, and "August 2008 was 3 C below June 1988, rather than projected 5 C above" Pro claims that there is a consensus of the "vast majority of scientists" that CO2 theory is correct. The main evidence he cites supporting that claim is the IPCC report. However, the IPCC itself is 70% non-scientists, a small elite determines the conclusions and edits the chapters to match their conclusions, and none of the contributors are allowed to vote on whether the report is valid. There is no evidence that if there is a consensus at all, that it is anything like a "vast majority." In addition to the hurricane expert who quite in protest, "Dr. Vincent Gray, a member of the IPCC's expert reviewers' panel asserts, 'There is no relationship between warming and [the] level of gases in the atmosphere.' " and "the [2001] report's lead author, atmospheric scientist Dr. John Christy, to rebuke media sensationalism and affirm, "The world is in much better shape than this doomsday scenario paints … the worst-case scenario [is] not going to happen." http://townhall.com... Recently, Christy identified the clear ideological beliefs of several authors and noted, "The tendency to succumb to group-think and the herd-instinct (now formally called the "informational cascade") is perhaps as tempting among scientists as any group ..." http://news.bbc.co.uk... Pro also cites the bogus study by Naomi Oreskes, a historian who searched scientific articles and claimed to find no articles contrary to CO2 theory. Oreskes only looked to for certain key phrases in certain journals, phrases basically related to political stance on the issue. Most scientific articles don't make any conclusions one way on the other about global warming, they just report on a study of some aspect of the science. It's easy to make a list of hundreds of scientific articles providing evidence contrary to CO2 theory, but none are included in Orestes study. Separately, I have compiled a lengthy critique of the Oreskes study, http://factspluslogic.com... Pro provided a reference that shows no relationship between CO2 and global warming over the past 600 million years. There was an ice age when CO2 levels were 12 time present. Pro responds that over history there were many things going on in climate. That's true, but it also shows that whatever the CO2 effect upon climate it has been insignificant relative to all those other causes. So for 600 million years, CO2 at levels a dozen times greater than now has been insignificant, but now we are supposed to believe it is dominant. Physical theory, past history, and current observation should CO2 has no significant climate effect.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Climate-change/1/
  • PRO

    Everything is predetermined unless humanity DOES have a...

    Human-Caused Climate Change is Impossible

    "There was never plastic before humans arrived - is that not a new variable? Emissions from gas-powered vehicles have never been around until we invented them, Is that not a new variable? " You and everyone else who debates this topic insists that humanity has a separate and individualized existence, Apart from it's prerequisite form. . And you fail to see how this stance is actually an argument for MY side. Plastic never would have existed without humans, Humans never would have existed without the Earth, Therefore Plastic would never have existed without the Earth. Any human activity. . . From the invention of plastic, To the utilization of fossil fuels, To the catastrophic change in Climate conditions is all a naturally occurring process of the Earth's evolution. Everything is predetermined unless humanity DOES have a separate and individualized existence, Which IS apart from the prerequisite form which resulted in it's existence (assumedly). "Then you say we ARE a foreign entity. Even if I don't agree with you, You've already destroyed your own argument. " This Even if I don't agree with you, You've already destroyed your own argument. " This is the whole point of my debate. I'm showing "Human Caused Climate Change" proponents how it is impossible for them to believe in purely "Human Caused Climate Change" unless those proponents acknowledge the necessity for humanity to be an unnatural, Foreign, And separate entity within the Universe. Science and Mathematics do not make mistakes. They are inherent laws of nature that are DISCOVERED by humanity, Not invented. They exist as a latticework of spacetime laws irrespective of Human presence. Prior to the introduction of humanity the Universe was a sterile, Predetermined scientific process. Humanity changed that. Pardon me for utilizing the fish hook.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Human-Caused-Climate-Change-is-Impossible/1/
  • PRO

    As solar activity decreases, cosmic ray penetration will...

    Climate Change Is Not an Imminent Danger

    I would like to thank Citrakayah for this great debate. I. Natural Factors Point to Little or No Change in Climate I.A. The Sun My opponent claims that solar activity has diverged from temperatures since the 1980s. He, however, is making an incorrect conclusion. Between raw solar activity (solar irradiance) and temperature, temperature lags about 7.5-10 years behind solar irradiance because of the heat capacity of the oceans. A better representation of the sun/temperature correlation is the length of the solar cycle. "This new parameter not only indicated a remarkably high correlation coefficient between solar activity and temperature (on the order of 0.95), but it also eliminated the problem of the 7-year lag encountered by Reid."[1][2][3] When looking at all of how the sun affects the climate: "For example, the authors of a paper by NASA's JPL remark '...has compared the minimum aa [index of geomagnetic activity] values with the Earth's surface temperature record and found a correlation of 0.95 between the two data sets starting in 1885. The solar irradiance [solar activity] proxy developed from the aa minima continues to track the Earth's surface temperature until the present.'"[4][5] In other words, using the better formulation produces an almost perfect correlation between solar activity and temperature. "If the Scafetta and West analysis used the uncontaminated satellite data since 1980, the results would show that the Sun has contributed at least 75% of the global warming of the last century."[6][7] That is at least how much the sun has contributed to recent warming. I.A.1 Solar Flux Predictions "From all that, for Solheim’s predicted temperature decline of 0.9º C over the whole of Solar Cycle 24 to be achieved, the decline from mid-2013 will be 1.2º C on average over the then remaining twelve and a half years of the cycle. No doubt the cooling will be back-loaded, making the further decline predicted over Solar Cycle 25 relative to Solar Cycle 24 more readily achievable."[8] Solar activity is expected to decline, and as a result of that, so is temperature. I.A.2. Cosmic Ray Flux Cosmic rays cause cloud formation: "Preliminary results show that these faux cosmic rays indeed have an effect on the atmosphere: When high energy protons stream in, production of nanometer-sized particles in the atmosphere increases by more than ten times."[9] More clouds causes global cooling: "Cloud cover has decreased over the past 39 years globally, and temperatures have risen during that time. This global decrease in cloud cover alone could account for all surface warming observed since the 1970s."[10] The change in cloudiness corresponds to the change in climate: "A scarcity of muons can be linked to elevated global temperatures by a reduction in low cloud cover and low cloudiness was indeed at a minimum around 1992-93."[11][12] Cosmic rays cause cloud formation which cools the planet. As solar activity decreases, cosmic ray penetration will increase, thereby increasing cloud formation and cooling the planet. I.A.3. Ocean Currents It is when we look at the oceans that we see a clearer pattern between solar activity and temperature. Because the oceans have an enormous heat storage capacity, it takes several years for a warming of the oceans to be transmitted to the surface (hence the 8 year lag in solar activity and air temperatures). Solar activity and ocean currents correlate directly.[13] "Current research also shows that Earth's oceans are now beginning to cool. It is also now clear that temperatures over the last century correlate far better with cycles in oceans than they do with carbon dioxide; and, the temperature cycles in oceans are caused by cycles of the sun."[14] The oceans have already flipped into a cool cycle, as I mentioned, because of the decrease in solar activity. I.B. The 1500-Year Cycle These are global events. Take, for example, the Medieval Warm Period. Various temperature estimates say that locations as far flung as Greenland, Africa, New Zealand, and South America reported temperatures 1-4 degrees C above their current temperatures. Not only is the Medieval Warming seen. A Vostok Glacier ice core revealed the 1500 year cycle over 400,000 years, and correlates with glacial movement all over the globe, and at the same time. The same goes with seabed data.[15] Overall, "Based on this, the Earth is about 150 years into a moderate Modern Warming that will last a few centuries longer. It will essentially restore the fine climate of the Medieval Climate Optimum.”[15] This cycle coincidences with the increase in temperature. II. Positive Effects of the Current Interglacial and Warm Period II.A. Health Benefits Actually, "The only global study suggests that this is true internationally: by 2050, there will be almost 400,000 more heat-related deaths a year, and almost 1.8 million fewer cold-related deaths. Warmer temperatures will save 1.4 million lives each year. The number of saved lives will outweigh the increase in heat-related deaths until at least 2200."[16] Yes, while it is easier to make fire than an air conditioner, heat is, overall, better for the body than cold (to a point). People in the Middle East are healthier (when controlled, that is) than people in, say, Siberia. What my opponent cites is not an increase in deaths from warming per se, but in temperature variability: "The claim that warming increases morbidity rates is a myth. This isn't the case, according to Dr. Robert Mendelsohn, an environmental economist from Yale University. Mendelsohn argues that heat-stress deaths are caused by temperature variability and not warming. Those deaths grow in number not as climates warm but as the variability in climate increases."[17] Overall, if temperatures rose 2.5 degrees Celsius, deaths in the United States from respiratory diseases such as pneumonia and influenza, diseases of the circulatory system and even infectious diseases would drop by about 40,000 per year. Warming might reduce medical costs by about $20 billion annually.[18][19] II.B. Economic Benefits Con­sequently, the more CO2 there is in the air, the better plants grow, as has been demonstrated in literally thousands of laboratory and field experiments. As a result, the amount of carbon gained per unit of water lost per unit leaf area —or water-use efficiency—increases dramatically as the air’s CO2 content rises; and this phenomenon has been well documented in CO2 enrichment experiments with agricultural crops. In addition, CO2 concentration increases make plants hardier against dangers such as UV radiation and soil salinity. And finally, health promoting substances found in various food crops and medicinal plants have been shown to benefit from rising atmospheric CO2.[20] (Other sources to studies in that link) Overall, increased CO2 concentrations help plants a lot more than hurt them. Plants feed on CO2, and more of it should make plants better. Conclusion This is a version of next century’s climate forecast using the information I provided: Built in cooling trend until at least 2024 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 - 0.15 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed.[21][22] The next few centuries should see temperatures go up slightly, albeit with fluctuations in between by the climate contributors I provided. Health effects should be positive as a slight warming and increased CO2 concentrations increase agricultural production and optimal plant temperature (corresponding to the slight increase in temperatures). Climate change is not an imminent danger. Sources Various reference charts and graphs may be found here: http://www.debate.org... in any of the sources in my link below. http://tny.cz...

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Climate-Change-Is-Not-an-Imminent-Danger/2/
  • CON

    However, Pro's figure shows is that the model predictions...

    Anthropogenic Climate Change Exists

    CO2 has increased by 54% in past 17 years with no global warming, and CO2 theory cannot explain why NASA data, which I cited in [6], shows there has been no global warming for 17 years. Here is the graph from [6]: Pro argued that the average temperature for each decade has increased for each of the last three decades. That does not contract the fact of there being no global warming for 17 years. Suppose the temperature anomalies were scaled to be 1 in 1980, 2 in 1990, 3 in 2000, and 3 in 2010. Then the decade averages would be 1.5, 2.5, and 3 respectively, with a higher decade average despite no increase in the 2000s. The post-2010 data, which Pro did not consider, also shows no temperature increase. Temperatures rose sharply in the 1990s, so the average for the decade is about half way between the low at the start of the decade and the high at the end. There is no increase from the end of the 90s to the present, so saying the average for 2001 through 2010 is higher than the 90s only says that 90s were warmer at the end of the decade than the beginning. My primary reference for the claim that that IPCC models cannot explain the 17 year lack of global warming is Tinsdale's book “Climate Models Fail” [7]. Tinsdale provides a book length comparison of IPCC model results showing that what actually happened in climate was outside of the error band of model predictions. Tinsdale correctly references Von Storch, but I provided the wrong link, for which I apologize. The Von Storch paper cited by Tinsdale is online, but it can only be accessed with academia.edu membership [17. http://www.academia.edu...] Storch says “we find that the continued stagnation in global warming, from 1998 to 2012, is inconsistent with model predictions, even at the 2% confidence level.” Tinsdale also referenced the Mauritsen paper, which I linked in [7]. Like Von Storch, it shows that no reasonable tweak in the IPCC models can bring then into agreement with what actually happened. If CO2 dominated climate in the 20th century, then temperature should have risen monotonically through the century. If fact, there was a sharp decline at the beginning of the century and long gradual decline from about the 40s through the 60s. The general trend is upwards, but a general upward trend is what we would expect if sunspots dominated climate. I presented the sunspot graph previously, but here is a nicer rendition [18. http://www.paulmacrae.com...] Temperature is closely following sunspot activity, but not CO2, through 2000 The continuation, below, shows the pause in global warming post-2000 is consistent with the sunspot cycle having peaked. [19. http://wattsupwiththat.com...] The 17 year pause in global warming is causing great consternation among scientists who previously believed CO2 predominated. A news report by Voosen summarizes the widespread recognition among scientists that the models are not working, and that some major factors are missing, although among CO2 advocates, there is no agreement among CO2 theorists as to what is wrong. [20. http://www.eenews.net...] Pro's [5] shows that natural forcing of climate is only a minor part of the model predictions. However, Pro's figure shows is that the model predictions are completely wrong. Temperature was supposed to rise sharply after 2000, as the figure shows, but it did not. Models proved wrong cannot be relied upon for future predictions. As Voosen documents, in the IPCC models, sunspots are only modeled as having a direct irradiance effect, and that effect is negligible for the 20th century through the present. Something else is happening that gives sunspots a much greater influence on climate. Total sea ice is at a high Pro's initial contention was that vanishing Arctic sea ice proves that CO2 dominates climate. That's wrong on two counts. Correlation does not prove causation. Also, global warming is global, so it cannot be that Arctic ice measures warming but Antarctic ice does not. In the last round, Pro changed his position and argued that total ice is important and not sea ice. But total ice has been decreasing since the early 1800s, well before any claim of anthropogenic warming. [21. http://www.davidarchibald.info...] Total ice shrinking doesn't say anything about the cause. Pro claimed that melting land ice in Antarctica caused the increase in sea ice. That's impossible, because 99.9% of Antarctica has never gotten warm enough for ice to melt. There is a tiny peninsula that goes far enough north to occasionally have some melting, but that's negligible. Future CO2 levels are unknown Pro speculates that once there is any warming from anthropogenic CO2 it will take 10,000 years or even millions of years to correct. Pro agrees that warming causes the release of CO2 from the oceans. That does not address the issue of what future CO2 levels will be. It only says that if there is warming from some cause, that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere would be higher, after some delay, than if CO2 were not released from the ocean. We know it is not the case that warming causes a runaway of temperature due to the release of CO2 causing further warming. The data by Rasmussen [15] shows that CO2 goes up and down following temperature with a lag of a few hundred years, and that is true when either temperatures or CO2 levels are higher than present. It cannot matter whether there was one degree of warming due to sunspots or due to anthropogenic CO2, if any warming were to cause a CO2 induced runaway of temperature, it would have shown up in the temperature and CO2 variation of the past 250,000 years, and it has not happened. All of the IPCC models assume that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are dominated by a continuing exponential rise in anthropogenic CO2. But fossils fuels are unquestionable being exhausted, so it is impossible for CO2 levels from burning fossil fuels to continue to rise exponentially. The only question is when anthropogenic CO2 will fall below the assumed exponential increase. Prof. David Archibald, an expert on fossil fuel reserves claims, “At best, we might get to about 600 ppm ...” [21. p.91] As fossil fuels become scarce the price will rise, which will lead to the use of alternatives like nuclear power, which is present only marginally more expensive than fossil fuels. But let's suppose that the 600 ppm level is reached at the end of the century. That's a 56% increase in CO2. But the 54% increase in CO2 in the past 17 years produced no net increase in global temperature. Because scientists agree CO2 warming is logarithmic, the same percentage increase should produce the same amount of warming. The CO2 warming of the past 17 years was canceled by natural phenomena not in the climate models, so Pro's claim that the climate problem is solved is false. Is 600 ppm total CO2 is the correct number? I don't, and no one knows for sure. The upper limits and the future rates of CO2 production are major unknowns that make it impossible for Pro to meet his burden of proof. Climate prediction based upon solar activity The IPCC model projections of climate depend upon the CO2 effect on warming being multiliplied by a positive factor of two or more by secondary effects, such as the warming increasing water vapor in the atmosphere. Archibald [21. p 1] summarizes: The real world evidence says the opposite. In late 2007, Dr. Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama published a paper analyzing data from the Aqua satellite. Based on the response of tropical clouds, Dr. Spencer demonstrated that the feedback is negative. He calculates a 0.5°C warming for a doubling of the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level. Global warming, as caused by carbon dioxide, is real but it is also minuscule, and will be lost in the noise of the climate system.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Anthropogenic-Climate-Change-Exists/1/
  • CON

    Recycled paper is artificially supported by the...

    Recycling paper is a good way to fight climate change.

    Recycled paper is artificially supported by the government. When this source of paper competes with paper that comes from trees, it pushes the demand for tree farming down. To compensate, tree farmers have to lower prices. This lowers profits margins, and as such, firms leave the industry. Land that was once used to cultivate trees is now turned into farming something else or sold to real estate developers. Hence, there are less trees, all other things being equal, and if trees are important for regulating carbon dioxide, then recycling paper is bad for fighting climate change. If you have any thoughts or just like to argue for the sake of arguing, let me know.

    • https://www.debate.org/debates/Recycling-paper-is-a-good-way-to-fight-climate-change./1/