Climate Change Is Not an Imminent Danger
I would like to thank Citrakayah for accepting this debate. I. Natural Factors Point
to Little or No Change In The Climate I.A. The Sun The sun is the main driver of the global climate. The level of activity from the sun correlates with the average global temperature.
The sun is currently decreasing in activity, meaning that the warming of the 1970s-1990s
will soon be erased. "Changes in the Sun can account for major climate changes on
Earth for the past 300 years, including part of the recent surge of global warming."[1]
The sun can account for most of the warming experienced over the past century, and
correlates well with the rising and falling of temperatures when compared to 20th
century temperatures: [2] I.A.1. Solar Flux Predictions Solar activity has been declining
for a little over a decade and will continue to do so for at least the foreseeable
future. "'Normally, the conveyor belt moves about 1 meter per second—walking pace,'
says Hathaway, 'That's how it has been since the late 19th century.' In recent years,
however, the belt has decelerated to 0.75 m/s in the north and 0.35 m/s in the south.
'We've never seen speeds so low.'"[19] This means that solar activity has been declining
recently. The next solar cycle, number 25, is projected to be one of the lowest in
centuries.[19] "Storms from the sun are expected to build to a peak in 2013 or so,
but after that, the long-range indicators are pointing to an extended period of low
activity — or even hibernation."[3] In fact, we are already beginning to experience
this lowered solar activity.[5][6] This graph illustrates the recent decline in solar
activity. Note the downward trend in solar activity overtime: [4] With solar activity
leveling off, temperatures will go back down to normal. In addition, there will be
fewer hazardous rays coming from the sun and fewer solar storms, meaning fewer disruptions
to the satellite systems we rely on so heavily. I.A.2. Cosmic Ray Flux With decreased
solar activity, there is increased cosmic ray penetration of the Earth's atmosphere.
Cosmic rays are inversely proportional to solar activity and proportional to cloud
cover; and greater cloud cover means cooler temperatures.[19][10][11] I.A.3. Ocean
Currents Ocean currents are the main internal drivers of the global climate. They have an R-squared correlation of 0.83, which is pretty significant (the highest
score is 1).[7] Here is a chart showing ocean current's correlation to temperatures: [7] The sun
is the main driver of ocean current temperatures, "This [solar activity] is the single
most important cause [of ocean currents and their temperatures]. The Sun provides
the bulk of the energy which drives the circulation of water in the oceans, either
directly or indirectly (through winds). The uneven distribution of solar energy across
the globe (highest at the equator, decreasing towards the poles) produces an uneven
heating of water in the ocean."[20] When plotted together, solar activity and ocean
current activity correlate well (notice the decline in solar activity after WWII,
and the subsequent fall in ocean current activity around the same time).[2][7][8]
Ocean currents, because of the sun's cooling and because of its natural three-decade
cycles of warm and cool, ocean currents are projected to cool down further than today
and to continue that pattern for at least another few decades. "Because PDO cycles
last 25 to 30 years, Easterbrook expects the cooling trend to continue for another
2 decades or so."[9] Here is a graph showing ocean current's temperatures since 1900:
[8] Note how all three currents are experiencing decreasing temperature trends, which,
due to their current short duration, should continue for at least two more decades,
and then another few decades to get back (possibly) to a peak. With decreased solar
activity causing lower ocean current temperatures, the Earth will cool somewhat over
at least the next few decades, albeit it shouldn't be that much. The climate will stay around normal. I.B. The 1500-Year Cycle There exists a 1500-year climatic
cycle of peak-trough-peak (or vice versa) temperature cycles. "Through at least the
last million years, a moderate 1500-year warm-cold cycle has been superimposed over
the longer, stronger Ice Ages and warm interglacials."[12] Here is an illustration
of this cycle: [13] This warm trend is projected to continue for around a few more
centuries, and then the cycle will flip into a cold pattern.[12] This warm period
will help counterbalance some of the effects of a diminishing sun. As solar activity
does its ups and downs, the counterbalance between the Earth and the Sun will help
keep Earth's climate systems in check. The various natural factors contributed by solar activity and the
Earth's 1500-year cycle point to an insignificant change in the Earth's climate. Temperatures should not be much higher or lower than they usually are on average
over the next few centuries. While the sun is cooling, the Earth will continue to
heat the planet somewhat until solar activity returns and we have another temperature
rise. It's a rise-and-fall situation. II. Positive Effects of the Current Interglacial
and Warm Period A moderately warm period is better than a cold period. If the temperature
is not too warm, a warm climate can have positive effects on both the Earth as a whole and on everyone. II.A. Health
Effects In moderation, warm temperatures are better for the body than cold temperatures.
People cannot get enough heat, infections are rampant, and hospital admissions will
rise in the cold. From 1979 to 1997, extreme cold killed roughly twice as many Americans
as heat waves [coincidentally when the Earth was heating up].[14][12] In Germany,
heat waves were found to reduce overall mortality rates slightly, while cold spells
led to a significant increase in deaths.[15][12] In addition, warmer weather decreases
incidences of strokes, respiratory diseases, and the flu.[12] In general, life expectancies
are higher in warmer climates, and there are fewer incidences of disease and other
health problems. A warm period would be beneficial to human health. II.B. Economic
Benefits Some of the major industrial sectors, particularly agriculture, tend to work
better in a warmer environment than they do in a cooler environment. "The book [The
Impact of Climate Change] finds that a moderate warming will have a positive economic impact on the agriculture
and forestry sectors. Since carbon dioxide is used by plants to capture and store
energy, there may be a fertilizing effect as levels of the gas rise. This, combined
with longer growing seasons, fewer frosts and more precipitation, among other factors,
could benefit some economic sectors."[16][17] CO2 increases, a byproduct of temperature
increases ([12]), naturally help to stimulate plant growth as well, further helping
agriculture. "For a 300 ppm increase in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration above the
planet's current base level of slightly less than 400 ppm, for example, the productivity
of earth's herbaceous plants rises by something on the order of 30%, while the productivity
of its woody plants rises by something on the order of 50%."[18][21] This further
helps humans by increasing food yields, lowering rates of starvation and hunger. Conclusion
There should be an insignificant change in the climate over the next couple of centuries as the sun continues its cycles and the Earth is
in a moderately warm period. In the short term, the major factors in the climate show a decrease in temperature, but the long term shows a stabilization of temperatures
to a reasonably warm level. This increases humans' life expectancies and increases
crop yields, reducing the incidence of hunger, thereby further aiding in the increases
in life expectancies. There is no rational reason to worry about the climate going off the deep end in the near future. On the contrary, our current climatic
state seems to be helping us. Sources http://tny.cz...
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