The Forgotten Soldier goes out to measure how much water...
Anthropogenic global climate change.
Dr. Michael E. Mann said, "One of the simplest relationships in all of atmospheric science is that as you warm the surface, you will get more evaporation."[1] Imagine Mann has made a mistake lead him to believe it acceptable to ostracize Nedialko T. Nikolov[5], a Scientist for the USDA Forestry Service, and Nobel Prize winner Ivar Giaever[6]. Forcing dissenters into hiding with a pseudonym, exiling from their livelihood, and insisting just because a lot of a group thinks something true makes it the realm of Politics and not Natural Philosophy which Science "claims" to be. Man Made Climate Change will hang on its simplest of claims: Evaporation. Anecdotally it may seem Mann has a point about Evaporation. After all, California is in a multiyear drought. However, we have a saying in Statistical Research. "The plural of anecdote is not data." Every winter dissenters will cite the cold and snow as their Anecdote of choice against Climate Change, and alarmists will cite heat waves each summer. These Anecdotes are not data and are only confirmation bias in action. What is data? NOAA's collection of weather station data stored in the Global Historical Climatology Network is data. It's immune to a human saying "It's hot today, so it must be global warming," or "It's cold today, so global warming must be false." Imagine Mann forgot among all the data collected by weather station the Evaporation Rate is one of them. The Forgotten Soldier goes out to measure how much water evaporated for a pan, so we know how much water escapes our reservoirs will not be forgotten by me. I will now be providing data analysis anyone can replicate, and verify using the references in the acknowledgment section. I do not believe in hiding my data behind undisclosed weighting methodology, so I have even released the source code[4] for processing the GHCN dataset, and a more detailed analysis[7]. With a little knowledge of excel, any of these graphs can be replicated. Figure 1[7] presents an interesting problem. Apparently, evaporation has kicked into overdrive, but what's missing is any indication of an increase in evaporation before 2005. What did man do in 2005 the muscle car of the 80's did not? What did we stop doing after the peak in 2011 causing evaporation to go back down which we're not doing more of today? It's plane to see this isn't Man Made. Perhaps evaporation is not enough since there are only a couple of hundred stations at most collecting it in North America at any point in time. Precipitation is the result of Evaporation, and we've collected in far larger quantity for far longer. Figure 2[7] represents over a thousand stations collecting data over the last century. Figure 2 confirms everything in Figure 1 with a greater level of fidelity. It is safe to say from 1950 to 2005 there was no meaningful change in precipitation. There is a small alteration around 1990 expectedly since NOAA, and the NWS began upgrading to automated rain gathering around this time[8]. Figure 2 makes our questions even more pressing. Why didn't the explosion of CO2 in the 70's show any increase in Precipitation? It does answer one important issue. Why, if there was no warming, do glaciers appear smaller than at the early half of the century? It is important to understand a glacier is in a state of perpetual melting which allows it to slide. The size and location of a glacier are related to the temperature, and the amount of moister it receives as fuel. In the 30's there is an apparent drop in precipitation which would be the same as cutting off the fuel for a glacier. This begins an Ice-albedo feedback loop[9] making it appear glaciers are retreating from temperature when they are being starved for fuel. It even explains the Antarctic glacial anomaly where Antarctica has Gained more Ice than it has lost[10] because the amount of fuel is much higher now due to an increase in precipitation. Because the timing is wrong for Climate Change, it is certainly not Man Made. Then what is the real cause? That is a separate debate, but some clues won't take too long. Shortly after NASA launched its THEMIS probe, they observed unpredicted phenomena where a North Polarity Coronal Mass Ejection hit the Earths North Pole and ripped it open rather than be deflected[12]. The second is the spike in Precipitation correlates to start of Solar Cycle 24 ejecting two X-class flares and interacting with the Earths EM Field[12]. This would explain why the spikes in the data occur when they do, and why they don't appear in the previous century worth of data. One of the simplest relations in climate science has socially inconvenient results for those who wish to raise the alarm on CO2. Acknowledgements: Global Historical Climatology Network Dataset - NOAA[2] Sceptics Global Warming Analyzer[4] [1] https://youtu.be... [2] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov... [3] https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov... [4] https://sourceforge.net... [5] http://retractionwatch.com... [6] https://www.heartland.org... [7] https://drive.google.com... [8] http://www.weather.gov... [9] https://en.wikipedia.org... [10] https://www.nasa.gov... [11] https://science.nasa.gov... [12] http://spaceweather.com...