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Climate Change Is Not an Imminent Danger

A Note: My arguments, which I started constructing before my opponent posted his round, have been based on the assumption that global warming is happening. If my opponent wishes to dispute this, I’ll argue that in Round 3, and it may be my main thrust of that round. I’d like to begin by noting that this debate doesn’t really hinge that much on who, or what, is causing global warming. C1: Public Health Many disease-carrying organisms can live only in areas with specific temperatures. For example, dengue fever is spread by (primarily) the mosquito Aedes aegypti, and lower temperatures limit disease transmission—this is because freezing temperatures kill overwinter larvae and eggs, size is reduced in warmer regions (making them have to feed more frequently to develop their eggs), and shorter incupation period for the virus (dengue type-2 has a period of twelve days at 30 C, but only has a period of seven days at 32-35 C).[1] All of these mean that warming temperatures would cause a significant increase in disease transmission. Dengue fever has no vaccine against it, and can be dangerous to certain groups (for instance, young children).[2] As many people in the South are uninsured[3], and the fever would be expanding its range into the South, we can reasonably conclude that dengue fever would cause significant problems due to global warming. The same can be said of yellow fever[4]. Heat waves also pose a danger. Despite the fact that cold snaps might be reduced in frequency, the evidence indicates it won’t make up for increased deaths due to heat waves[5]. In part this is because extreme heat behaves differently than extreme cold, because it is more difficult to adapt to extreme heat. C2: Sea Level Rise: Sea level rise could potentially be very dangerous. Aside from the fact that nations like Tuvalu are at risk of partially submerging[6], there is a general risk of hundreds of millions of people in the developing world being displaced by sea level rise[7]. C3: Oceanic Acidification: As carbon dioxide levels rise, the ocean will absorb carbon dioxide. This in turn will acidify the ocean, which will cause organisms that use calcium carbonate to build their shells to have problems doing so[8]. Sea stars also have severe impacts inflicted on them (a drop of pH of .2 to .4 causes only .1% of a species of temperature brittle star larva to survive), as would squid (including commercially important species)[9]. Aside from the harmful effects on sea life (since we aren’t only talking about humans here), this damages coral reefs, and coral reefs are a useful source of tourist-related revenue[10]. Ergo we can reasonably conclude that ocean acidification will harm the economy of some areas. C4: Cloud Forests: Mountains have climates that vary based on elevation. For instance, the bottom might be forest, and the top might be an icecap. Cloud forests follow this pattern; the temperature depends on elevation. Plant and animal species in cloud forests rely on specific temperatures and humidity levels. In fact, the cloud forests of Costa Rica and the Andes have been rising over time—as the climate warms, the preferable temperature area moves upwards, resulting in the preferable elevation moving upwards. As a result, species have to move upwards—plants, for example, will have to move an average of 2600 feet to remain in equilibrium with climate, and they’ll have to do that by 2100 (based on 2006 statistics). In the Monteverde cloud forest, this may be already happening. Dry seasons are longer (since the mid-1070s) and this has coincided with some local extinctions (a few amphibian species, for instance)[11][12]. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1998/03/980310081157.htm www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever#Predisposition www.huffington.post.com/2012/08/30/states-uninsured-residents_n_1844346.html http://www.decvar.org...... http://oem.bmj.com...... http://www.skepticalscience.com...... http://econ.worldbank.org...... http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...... http://www.scientificamerican.com...... http://oceanservice.noaa.gov...... http://news.stanford.edu...... http://www.smithsonianmag.com......